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The Dynamics of Automation Adoption: Firm-Level Heterogeneity and Aggregate Employment Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Bisio
  • Angelo Cuzzola
  • Marco Grazzi
  • Daniele Moschella

Abstract

We investigate the impact of investment in automation-related goods on adopting and non-adopting firms in the Italian economy during 2011-2019. We integrate datasets on trade activities, firms’, and workers’ characteristics for the population of Italian importing firms and estimate the effects on adopters’ outcomes within a difference-indifferences design exploiting import lumpiness in product categories linked to automation and AI technologies. We find a positive average adoption effect on the adopters’ employment and on the value-added and average wage, whereas sales and productivity increase after an initial drop with a net positive effect five years after adoption. Crucially, the employment effect is heterogeneous across firms: a positive scale effect is predominant among small firms, whereas a negative displacement effect is predominant among medium and large firms. We complete the framework with a 5-digit sector-level analysis showing that adopting automation technologies has an overall negative effect on aggregate employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Bisio & Angelo Cuzzola & Marco Grazzi & Daniele Moschella, 2023. "The Dynamics of Automation Adoption: Firm-Level Heterogeneity and Aggregate Employment Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 10697, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10697
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Aghion & Céline Antonin & Simon Bunel & Xavier Jaravel, 2020. "What Are the Labor and Product Market Effects of Automation? New Evidence from France," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403062, HAL.
    2. Grigoli, Francesco & Koczan, Zsoka & Topalova, Petia, 2020. "Automation and labor force participation in advanced economies: Macro and micro evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/170cd4sul89ddpnfuomvfm0jc0 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bogliacino, Francesco & Pianta, Mario, 2010. "Innovation and Employment: a Reinvestigation using Revised Pavitt classes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 799-809, July.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3n1gbsj6rs80ipqv9d42nfd0ge is not listed on IDEAS
    6. David H. Autor, 2015. "Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Tiedtke, Julian, 2024. "Unveiling the Job-Creating and Destroying Effects of Automation through the Lense of Heterogeneity," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302375, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    automation; employment; firm heterogeneity; imports; technology adoption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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