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Monitorización de objetivos fiscales anuales: una aplicación con datos regionales

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Abstract

En este artículo evaluamos el grado de ajuste a los objetivos presupuestarios establecidos de un conjunto de datos de recaudación tributaria de la Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía. Usamos la metodología de Kanda (2002), que permite evaluar la probabilidad de alcanzar el objetivo anual prefijado cuando se dispone de información mensual de una parte del año. Los perfiles mensuales estudiados se ajustaron a una senda compatible con el objetivo anual en casi todos los casos estudiados. Además se aprecia una tendencia en los Impuestos directos y Tasas, precios públicos y otros ingresos a mostrar un sesgo a la baja respecto al objetivo anual, mientras que el capítulo de Impuestos indirectos tiende a presentar errores positivos respecto al objetivo anual.

Suggested Citation

  • Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez, 2004. "Monitorización de objetivos fiscales anuales: una aplicación con datos regionales," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/66, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    • Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2004_66
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    1. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Ana Lamo, 2004. "Short-term monitoring of fiscal policy discipline," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 247-265.
    2. Mr. Daniel S Kanda, 2002. "Assessing Monthly Progress towards Annual Fiscal Revenue Targets," IMF Working Papers 2002/116, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ingresos públicos; objetivos presupuestarios; previsión y seguimiento;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
    • R5 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis

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