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After the Fall: An Ex Post Characterization of Housing Price Declines Across Metropolitan Areas

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  • Carson, Richard T
  • Dastrup, Samuel R.

Abstract

Housing prices have plummeted across the United States. This paper examines differences in the magnitude of housing price decreases across metropolitan areas. A relatively small number of housing market variables observable before the fall are capable of explaining over 70% of the considerable variation in price declines. An additional nonparametric analysis suggests that exceeding particular thresholds for some of the key predictors is associated with much larger price drops. These findings are consistent with historical price patterns and raise questions about the validity of mortgage pricing and risk diversification norms in the US. The analysis points to a set of stylized facts concerning the housing price bubble that need to be explained and suggests fruitful hypotheses for understanding the dramatic housing price declines.

Suggested Citation

  • Carson, Richard T & Dastrup, Samuel R., 2009. "After the Fall: An Ex Post Characterization of Housing Price Declines Across Metropolitan Areas," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt7ng9d927, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt7ng9d927
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    2. Jeffrey Thompson & Timothy M. Smeeding, 2010. "Recent Trends in the Distribution of Income: Labor, Wealth and More Complete Measures of Well Being," Working Papers wp225, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    3. Kyungsoon Wang, 2019. "Housing market resilience: Neighbourhood and metropolitan factors explaining resilience before and after the US housing crisis," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 56(13), pages 2688-2708, October.
    4. Agustín S. Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2012. "How housing slumps end [Financial institutions and markets across countries and over time: data and analysis]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 647-692.

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