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Modelling the Absolute Returns of Different Stock Indices: Exploring the Forecastability of an Alternative Measure of Risk

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  • Granger, Clive W.J.
  • Sin, Chor-yiu

Abstract

Conventional measures of the risk of a financial asset make use of the unobserved (conditional) variance or standard deviation of its return. In this paper, we treat the observed absolute return as a measure of risk and explore its forecastability. Two simple models are considered. One is a new AR-like model which is applied to the absolute return. The other is an ARCH-like model called Asymmetric Power ARCH. The forecastability is evaluated with the average log-likelihood of absolute return, instead of that of return itself. While the absolute return is interpreted as "volatility", some quantities of its entire distribution, such as the 95-th quantiles, can be interpreted as "volatility of volatility". We apply both models to three stock indices, namely Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225 Index and Standard and Poors 500 Index. The new model by and large outperforms the ARCH-like model in both in-sample goodness of fit and post-sample forecastability. It performs exceptionally well in the post-sample period after the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis

Suggested Citation

  • Granger, Clive W.J. & Sin, Chor-yiu, 1999. "Modelling the Absolute Returns of Different Stock Indices: Exploring the Forecastability of an Alternative Measure of Risk," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt48r4781r, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt48r4781r
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Woerner Jeannette H. C., 2003. "Variational sums and power variation: a unifying approach to model selection and estimation in semimartingale models," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 47-68, January.
    2. Coronado, Semei & Rojas, Omar & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco (ed.), 2018. "Recent Topics in Time Series and Finance: Theory and Applications in Emerging Markets," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, edition 1, volume 1, number 022, January.
    3. Laakkonen, Helinä, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility, macro announcements and the choice of intraday sasonality filtering method," Research Discussion Papers 23/2007, Bank of Finland.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_023 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. De Arce Borda, R., 2004. "20 años de modelos ARCH: una visión de conjunto de las distintas variantes de la familia/20 Years of Arch Modelling: a Survey of Different Models in the Family," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 1-27, Abril.
    6. Laakkonen, Helinä, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility, macro announcements and the choice of intraday sasonality filtering method," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2007, Bank of Finland.
    7. Helinä Laakkonen, 2007. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Exchange Rate Volatility," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 23-40, Spring.

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