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The Cross Section of Expected Returns and its Relation to Past Returns: New Evidence

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  • Grinblatt, Mark
  • Moskowitz, Tobias J.

Abstract

This paper parsimoniously characterizes how past returns affect the cross-section of expected returns. Using Fama-MacBeth regressions, it shows that the momentum and reversals associated with past returns over various horizons are strongly affected by a turn-of-the-year seasonal that differs for winter and losers, depending on both the tax environment and the month of the year, and differs by exchange listing. The analysis also uncovers a consistent winners effect – high fractions of positive return months tend to increase expected returns. Out-of-sample evidence suggests that the documented relation between past returns and expected returns cannot entirely be due to data snooping biases.

Suggested Citation

  • Grinblatt, Mark & Moskowitz, Tobias J., 1999. "The Cross Section of Expected Returns and its Relation to Past Returns: New Evidence," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt1k67p66s, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt1k67p66s
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Kaestner, 2006. "Investors' Misreaction to Unexpected Earnings: Evidence of Simultaneous Overreaction and Underreaction," Post-Print halshs-03037432, HAL.
    2. Zhiwu Chen & Jan Jindra, 2001. "A Valuation Study of Stock-Market Seasonality and Firm Size," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm199, Yale School of Management.
    3. D'Mello, Ranjan & Ferris, Stephen P. & Hwang, Chuan Yang, 2003. "The tax-loss selling hypothesis, market liquidity, and price pressure around the turn-of-the-year," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 73-98, January.
    4. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    5. Gutierrez, Jose, 2016. "Reversal of 3-day losers and continuation of 3-day winners on the NASDAQ," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 68-73.
    6. Zhiwu Chen & Jan Jindra, 2001. "A Valuation Study of Stock-Market Seasonality and Firm Size," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm199, Yale School of Management.
    7. Jose Gutierrez, 2016. "Reversal of 3‐day losers and continuation of 3‐day winners on the NASDAQ," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 68-73, September.
    8. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    9. Tarun Chordia & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2002. "Momentum, Business Cycle, and Time‐varying Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 985-1019, April.
    10. Min, Byoung-Kyu & Kim, Tong Suk, 2016. "Momentum and downside risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 104-118.

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