IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v72y2016isps104-s118.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Momentum and downside risk

Author

Listed:
  • Min, Byoung-Kyu
  • Kim, Tong Suk

Abstract

We examine whether time-variation in the profitability of momentum strategies is related to variation in macroeconomic conditions. We find reliable evidence that the momentum strategy exposes investors to greater downside risk. Momentum strategies deliver economically large and statistically reliable negative profits in bad economic states when the expected market risk premium is high, whereas positive profits in good economic states when the expected market risk premium is low. Our results are robust to alternative constructions of momentum portfolios, out-of-sample estimation of the expected market risk premium, and after controlling for the January effect, lagged market return, and investor sentiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Min, Byoung-Kyu & Kim, Tong Suk, 2016. "Momentum and downside risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 104-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:72:y:2016:i:s:p:s104-s118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.04.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426616300292
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.04.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64, Elsevier.
    2. Antoniou, Constantinos & Doukas, John A. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2013. "Cognitive Dissonance, Sentiment, and Momentum," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 245-275, February.
    3. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    5. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    6. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    7. Wang, Kevin Q. & Xu, Jianguo, 2015. "Market volatility and momentum," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 79-91.
    8. Murillo Campello & Long Chen & Lu Zhang, 2008. "Expected returns, yield spreads, and asset pricing tests," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1297-1338, May.
    9. Tarun Chordia & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2002. "Momentum, Business Cycle, and Time‐varying Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 985-1019, April.
    10. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, February.
    11. Grundy, Bruce D & Martin, J Spencer, 2001. "Understanding the Nature of the Risks and the," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 29-78.
    12. Lu Zhang, 2005. "The Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 67-103, February.
    13. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:5:p:2145-2176 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Andy C.W. Chui & Sheridan Titman & K.C. John Wei, 2010. "Individualism and Momentum around the World," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 361-392, February.
    15. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    16. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    17. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    18. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    20. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    21. Mark Grinblatt & Tobias J. Moskowitz, "undated". "The Cross Section of Expected Returns and its Relation to Past Returns: New Evidence," CRSP working papers 503, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    22. Kim, Dongcheol & Roh, Tai-Yong & Min, Byoung-Kyu & Byun, Suk-Joon, 2014. "Time-varying expected momentum profits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 191-215.
    23. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    24. Barberis, Nicholas & Thaler, Richard, 2003. "A survey of behavioral finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1053-1128, Elsevier.
    25. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1999. "Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1553-1607, October.
    26. Edwin J. Elton, 1999. "Presidential Address: Expected Return, Realized Return, and Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1199-1220, August.
    27. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    28. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    29. Timothy C. Johnson, 2002. "Rational Momentum Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 585-608, April.
    30. Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2005. "Is value riskier than growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 187-202, October.
    31. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    32. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    33. Blume, Marshall E & Friend, Irwin, 1973. "A New Look at the Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 19-33, March.
    34. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    35. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Nittai K. Bergman & Sugata Roychowdhury, 2008. "Investor Sentiment and Corporate Disclosure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 1057-1083, December.
    37. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    39. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, April.
    40. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:267-284 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1345-1365 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Sagi, Jacob S. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2007. "Firm-specific attributes and the cross-section of momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 389-434, May.
    43. John M. Griffin & Xiuqing Ji & J. Spencer Martin, 2003. "Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2515-2547, December.
    44. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    45. Michael Lemmon & Evgenia Portniaguina, 2006. "Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1499-1529.
    46. Laura Xiaolei Liu & Lu Zhang, 2008. "Momentum Profits, Factor Pricing, and Macroeconomic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2417-2448, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wen, Hui & Ho, Ken C. & Gao, Jijun & Yu, Li, 2022. "The fundamental effects of ESG disclosure quality in boosting the growth of ESG investing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Ahn, Dong-Hyun & Min, Byoung-Kyu & Yoon, Bohyun, 2019. "Why has the size effect disappeared?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 256-276.
    3. Gao, Ya & Han, Xing & Li, Youwei & Xiong, Xiong, 2019. "Overnight momentum, informational shocks, and late informed trading in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Yin, Libo & Wei, Ya, 2020. "Aggregate profit instability and time variations in momentum returns: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    5. Gao, Ya & Han, Xing & Li, Youwei & Xiong, Xiong, 2021. "Investor heterogeneity and momentum-based trading strategies in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Kang, Hankil & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Information in mispricing factors for future investment opportunities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 657-668.
    7. Gao, Yang & Leung, Henry & Satchell, Stephen, 2022. "Partial moment momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    8. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia, 2022. "Momentum investing: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 87-113, February.
    9. Xie, Nan & Wang, Zongrun & Chen, Sicen & Gong, Xu, 2019. "Forecasting downside risk in China’s stock market based on high-frequency data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 530-541.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, October.
    2. Kim, Dongcheol & Roh, Tai-Yong & Min, Byoung-Kyu & Byun, Suk-Joon, 2014. "Time-varying expected momentum profits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 191-215.
    3. Chen, Lemeng & Lazrak, Skander & Wang, Yan & Welch, Robert, 2019. "Pure momentum is priced," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 75-89.
    4. Mao, Mike Qinghao & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "Price and earnings momentum: An explanation using return decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 332-351.
    5. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia, 2022. "Momentum investing: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 87-113, February.
    6. Goetzmann, William N. & Huang, Simon, 2018. "Momentum in Imperial Russia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 579-591.
    7. Wang, Kevin Q. & Xu, Jianguo, 2015. "Market volatility and momentum," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 79-91.
    8. Efdal Ulas Misirli, 2018. "Productivity Risk and Industry Momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 739-774, September.
    9. Paulo Maio, 2013. "Intertemporal CAPM with Conditioning Variables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 122-141, April.
    10. Cooper, Michael J. & Gubellini, Stefano, 2011. "The critical role of conditioning information in determining if value is really riskier than growth," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 289-305, March.
    11. Peter Nyberg & Salla Pöyry, 2014. "Firm Expansion and Stock Price Momentum," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1465-1505.
    12. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    13. Ashour, Samar & Hao, Grace Qing & Harper, Adam, 2023. "Investor sentiment, style investing, and momentum," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2003. "On the cross section of conditionally expected stock returns," Working Papers 2003-043, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Garcia-Feijoo, Luis & Jensen, Gerald R. & Jensen, Tyler K., 2018. "Momentum and funding conditions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 312-329.
    16. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    17. Chen, Long & Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2008. "The expected value premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 269-280, February.
    18. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    19. Docherty, Paul & Hurst, Gareth, 2018. "Return dispersion and conditional momentum returns: International evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 263-278.
    20. Mortal, Sandra C. & Schill, Michael J., 2018. "The role of firm investment in momentum and reversal," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 255-278.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Momentum; Economic state; Expected market risk premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:72:y:2016:i:s:p:s104-s118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.