IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdi/wpaper/74.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Instability Lowers African Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-François BRUN

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

  • Patrick GUILLAUMONT

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

  • Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

Abstract

This paper aims to assess the role of instabilities on Africa low rates of growth during the seventies and eighties, using cross-section econometric estimates, on a sample of African and non African countries and two pooled decades. Africa exhibits higher "primary" instabilities (climatic, terms of trade and political instabilities), i.e. instabilities which are structural rather than the result of policy. These "primary" instabilities influence Africa growth, through a lower growth residual more than a lower average rate of investment. They do so by their impact on economic policy, which is evidenced by their influence on two "intermediate" instabilities, the instabilities of the rate of investment and of the real exchange rate, which significantly lower the rate of growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François BRUN & Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Sylviane GUILLAUMONT JEANNENEY, 1998. "How Instability Lowers African Growth," Working Papers 199806, CERDI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:74
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://publi.cerdi.org/ed/1998/1998.06.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    2. Savvides, Andreas, 1995. "Economic growth in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 449-458, March.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    4. Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Plane, Patrick, 1988. "Participating in African monetary unions: An alternative evaluation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 569-576, May.
    5. Dawe, David, 1996. "A new look at the effects of export instability on investment and growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1905-1914, December.
    6. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    7. Collier, Paul & Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont, Sylviane & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1997. "Redesigning conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1399-1407, September.
    8. Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena, 1991. "Export Instability and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 815-828, July.
    9. Lussier, Martine, 1993. "Impacts of Exports on Economic Performance: A Comparative Study," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 2(1), pages 106-127, May.
    10. Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
    11. Ojo, Oladeji & Oshikoya, Temitope, 1995. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: Some African Results," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 4(2), pages 163-191, October.
    12. Guillaumont, Patrick, 1987. "From export instability effects to international stabilization policies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 633-643, May.
    13. Moran, Cristian, 1983. "Export fluctuations and economic growth : An empirical analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 195-218.
    14. Patrick Guillaumont, 1994. "Adjustment policy and agricultural development," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 141-155, March.
    15. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Exports and economic growth: The African case," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 831-835, June.
    16. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
    17. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2000. "The International Dimension of African Economic Growth," CID Working Papers 34, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2000. "On the Economic Vulnerability of Low Income Countries," Working Papers 200016, CERDI.
    3. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2001. "Ouverture, vulnérabilité et développement," Working Papers 200103, CERDI.
    4. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 1999. "On The Economic Vulnerability Of Low Income Countries révisé, cf 2000.16," Working Papers 199916, CERDI.
    5. Savvides, Andreas, 1995. "Economic growth in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 449-458, March.
    6. Celal Kucuker, 2003. "Türkiye Ýktisat Kongresi Büyüme Stratejileri Çalýþma Grubu," Working Papers 2003/5, Turkish Economic Association.
    7. Matthias Cinyabuguma & Louis Putterman, 2006. "Sub-Saharan Growth Surprises: Geography, Institutions And History in an all African Data Panel," Working Papers 2006-21, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    8. Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 193-228.
    9. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    10. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    11. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "Why is South Africa Still a Developing Country?," MPRA Paper 80763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Neil Foster, 2006. "Exports, growth and threshold effects in Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(6), pages 1056-1074.
    13. W. A. Naudé, 2004. "The effects of policy, institutions and geography on economic growth in Africa: an econometric study based on cross-section and panel data," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 821-849.
    14. P. Guillaumont & L. Chauvet, 2001. "Aid and Performance: A Reassessment," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 66-92.
    15. Yacine Belarbi & Lylia Sami & Saïd Souam, 2016. "The effects of institutions and natural resources in heterogeneous growth regimes," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 248-265, July.
    16. Xanthippi Chapsa & Athanasios L. Athanasenas & Nikolaos Tabakis, 2019. "Real Convergence in EU-15: A Comparative Analysis of North versus South Europe," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-21.
    17. Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George & Pavleas, Sotiris, 2007. "Determinants of economic growth: the experts’ view," Papers DYNREG20, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    18. Nuno Torres & Oscar Afonso, 2008. "Re-evaluating the impact of natural resources on economic growth," FEP Working Papers 278, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    19. Azmat Gani, 1998. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth in the South Pacific island economies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(12), pages 747-749.
    20. E. Tsanana & X. Chapsa & C. Katrakilidis, 2016. "Is growth corrupted or bureaucratic? Panel evidence from the enlarged EU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(33), pages 3131-3147, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vincent Mazenod (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceauvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.