Long-Term Nexus of Macroeconomic and Financial Fundamentals with Cryptocurrencies

In this empirical study I examine the influence of macroeconomic and financial fundamentals on cryptocurrency metrics over the long term. Through both parametric and non-parametric estimation methods, I establish that the relative value of the US dollar and the price of gold consistently exert significant impact on cryptocurrency metrics. Analyzing daily and monthly data reveals a robust statistical correlation, resulting in adverse effects on cryptocurrency prices, market capitalizations, and Bitcoin’s hash rate. These findings along with distinct features of Bitcoin resonate with the concept of Bitcoin as a digital asset analogous to physical gold, assuming a role similar to a substitute for the latter. Comparatively, Bitcoin’s hash rate demonstrates heightened market exposure when contrasted with its price counterpart. While the value of the US dollar exerts negative effects on both gold and Bitcoin, the latter’s response is notably greater. Moreover, the relationships of gold and Bitcoin with indicators such as the federal funds rate and the S&P 500 exhibit divergent patterns. While the US dollar primarily exerts downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price and the gold price primarily influences the hash rate, over time the significance of both factors, though dominant, gradually diminishes.