IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cda/wpaper/93.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Balance: It'S Size And Determinants

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Feenstra
  • Wing Thye Woo
  • Wen Hai
  • Shunli Yao

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

Abstract

This paper has two aims. The first is to reduce the range within which the true U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit lies. The second is to identify the determinants of the bilateral trade deficit, and offer an assessment of their relative importance. We calculate a smaller range of values for the bilateral trade deficit than in previous studies, due to a new estimation method that takes advantage of our access to detailed Chinese Customs data at the commodity level. For example, the revised U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit is $15 billion to $20 billion in 1994, and $16 billion to $22 billion in 1995, compared to the official range of $8 billion to $30 billion, and $9 billion to $34 billion, respectively. The widening of the U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit in recent years reflected many factors. In our opinion, the two chief factors are (i) macroeconomic forces in the U.S. and China moving in opposite directions, causing their respective overall trade balance to move in opposite directions; and (ii) the accelerated relocation of production of U.S. imports from East Asia to China.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Feenstra & Wing Thye Woo & Wen Hai & Shunli Yao, 2003. "The U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Balance: It'S Size And Determinants," Working Papers 93, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:93
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.dss.ucdavis.edu/files/2rGquXQiBwJdTeHQuF6Chhhb/98-9.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K. C. Fung, 1998. "Accounting for Chinese Trade: Some National and Regional Considerations," NBER Chapters, in: Geography and Ownership as Bases for Economic Accounting, pages 173-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Liu, Liang-Yn & Woo, Wing Thye, 1994. "Saving Behaviour under Imperfect Financial Markets and the Current Account Consequences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 512-527, May.
    3. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Present value tests of an intertemporal model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 237-253, November.
    4. Nicholas R. Lardy, 1994. "China in the World Economy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 24, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Wen Hai & Wing T. Woo & Shunli Yao, "undated". "The U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Balance: It'S Size And Determinants," Department of Economics 98-09, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    2. Elissa Braunstein & Gerald Epstein, 2002. "Bargaining Power and Foreign Direct Investment in China: Can 1.3 Billion Consumers Tame the Multinationals?," SCEPA working paper series. 2002-13, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    3. Xiaohui Liu & Chang Shu, 2003. "Determinants of Export Performance: Evidence from Chinese Industries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 45-67, March.
    4. Hali J. Edison & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani, 1998. "Was China the first domino? assessing links between China and the rest of emerging Asia," International Finance Discussion Papers 604, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Fernald, John & Edison, Hali & Loungani, Prakash, 1999. "Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 515-535, August.
    6. Robert C. Feenstra, 1999. "Discrepancies in International Data: An Application to China-Hong Kong Entrepot Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 338-343, May.
    7. Jinyoung Hwang & Jong Ha Lee, 2013. "Financial deepening and business cycle volatility in Korea," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(21), pages 1693-1700, November.
    8. F. Gerard Adams & Byron Gangnes & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2006. "Why is China so Competitive? Measuring and Explaining China's Competitiveness," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 95-122, February.
    9. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 543-568, November.
    10. Xu, Xinpeng, 2002. "The dynamic-optimizing approach to import demand: a structural model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 265-270, January.
    11. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1999. "Current Account Deficits and Capital Flows in East Asia and Latin America: Are the Early Nineties Different From the Early Eighties," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues, pages 57-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Richard H. Clarida & Manuela Goretti & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 169-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Javed AHMED & Malik Fahim BASHIR, 2016. "An empirical investigation of banking sector development and economic growth in a panel of selected SAARC countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(607), S), pages 65-72, Summer.
    14. Feliz, Raúl Aníbal & Vargas, Laura, 1994. "Una prueba econométrica del enfoque moderno de la cuenta corriente en México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 9(2), pages 189-207.
    15. Jiawen Yang & Hossein Askari & John Forrer & Hildy Teegen, 2004. "US Economic Sanctions Against China: Who Gets Hurt?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(7), pages 1047-1081, July.
    16. Kollmann, Robert, 1996. "Incomplete asset markets and the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 945-961, May.
    17. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2002. "Intertemporal Consumption Smoothing and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 82-98, March.
    18. Dwayne Benjamin & Loren Brandt & Paul Glewwe & Guo Li, 2002. "Markets, Human Capital and Inequality: Evidence from Rural China," International Economic Association Series, in: Richard B. Freeman (ed.), Inequality Around the World, chapter 5, pages 87-127, Palgrave Macmillan.
    19. Letendre, Marc-Andre, 2004. "Semi-parametric predictions of the intertemporal approach to the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 363-386, December.
    20. Tantri, Malini L., 2014. "Promises and paradoxes of SEZs expansion in India," Working Papers 331, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Letters and Science IT Services Unit (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/educdus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.