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The U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Balance: It'S Size And Determinants

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  • Robert Feenstra
  • Wing Thye Woo
  • Wen Hai
  • Shunli Yao

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

Abstract

This paper has two aims. The first is to reduce the range within which the true U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit lies. The second is to identify the determinants of the bilateral trade deficit, and offer an assessment of their relative importance. We calculate a smaller range of values for the bilateral trade deficit than in previous studies, due to a new estimation method that takes advantage of our access to detailed Chinese Customs data at the commodity level. For example, the revised U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit is $15 billion to $20 billion in 1994, and $16 billion to $22 billion in 1995, compared to the official range of $8 billion to $30 billion, and $9 billion to $34 billion, respectively. The widening of the U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit in recent years reflected many factors. In our opinion, the two chief factors are (i) macroeconomic forces in the U.S. and China moving in opposite directions, causing their respective overall trade balance to move in opposite directions; and (ii) the accelerated relocation of production of U.S. imports from East Asia to China.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Feenstra & Wing Thye Woo & Wen Hai & Shunli Yao, 2003. "The U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Balance: It'S Size And Determinants," Working Papers 93, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:93
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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