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Unawareness, Beliefs and Speculative Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Burkhard C. Schipper
  • Martin Meier
  • Aviad Heifetz

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

Abstract

We define a generalized state-space model with interactive unawareness and probabilistic beliefs. Such models are desirable for potential applications of asymmetric unawareness. We compare unawareness with probability zero belief. Applying our unawareness belief structures, we show that the common prior assumption is too weak to rule out speculative trade in all states. Yet, we prove a generalized ""No-trade"" theorem according to which there can not be common certainty of strict preference to trade. Moreover, we show a generalization of the ""No-agreeing-to-disagree"" theorem.

Suggested Citation

  • Burkhard C. Schipper & Martin Meier & Aviad Heifetz, 2009. "Unawareness, Beliefs and Speculative Trade," Working Papers 280, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:280
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unawareness; awareness; zero probability; type-space; common prior; agreement; speculative trade; interactive epistemology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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