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Uncertainty About Projections of Medicare Cost Growth: Technical Paper 2004-13

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  • Julie Topoleski

Abstract

Over the next several decades, Medicare costs are going to increase significantly. Previous analysis has looked at the potential range of costs using a deterministic, scenario-based analysis. This provides a range of potential outcomes but provides no information as to the likelihood of these outcomes. The analysis here systematically considers the uncertainty inherent in forecasting Medicare costs using a Monte Carlo approach that reflects both the uncertainty in forecasting health costs and the uncertainty association with economic and demographic projections. Within 100

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  • Julie Topoleski, 2004. "Uncertainty About Projections of Medicare Cost Growth: Technical Paper 2004-13," Working Papers 15942, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:15942
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    1. Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Why Have Health Expenditures as a Share fo GDP Risen So Much?," NBER Working Papers 9325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Joseph P. Newhouse, 1992. "Medical Care Costs: How Much Welfare Loss?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 3-21, Summer.
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