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An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031

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  • Congressional Budget Office

Abstract

In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit equals $3.0 trillion in fiscal year 2021 and averages $1.2 trillion per year over the 2022–2031 period, under the assumption that existing laws governing taxes and spending generally remain unchanged. Because of those large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to reach 103 percent of GDP at the end of fiscal year 2021 and 106 percent of GDP, the highest level in the nation’s history, in 2031.

Suggested Citation

  • Congressional Budget Office, 2021. "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031," Reports 57218, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:report:57218
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2021-07/57218-Outlook.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kyle Boutilier & Thomas J. Carter & Xin Scott Chen & Eshini Ekanayake & Louis Poirier & Peter Shannon & Akash Uppal & Lin Xiang, 2022. "Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-4, Bank of Canada.
    2. Alexandra Stanczyk & Dana Rotz & Erin Welch & Andrei Streke, "undated". "What Works During Economic Recessions and Recoveries? Evidence From the Pathways Clearinghouse," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 35b4d568891a44fd809883130, Mathematica Policy Research.
    3. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2021. "The Pandemic, the Stimulus, and the Future Prospects for the US Economy," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_6_21, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2022. "The updated Okun method for estimation of potential output with alternative measures of labor underutilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 158-178.
    5. Daniel Fried, 2021. "CBO’s Model and Projections of U.S. International Investment Holdings and Income Flows: Working Paper 2021-10," Working Papers 57326, Congressional Budget Office.
    6. Tomaz Cajner & John Coglianese & Joshua Montes, 2021. "The Long-Lived Cyclicality of the Labor Force Participation Rate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Michael Reich, 2021. "Counterpoint To Michael Strain," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 1308-1312, September.
    8. Omrane Guedhami & April Knill & William Megginson & Lemma W. Senbet, 2023. "Economic impact of COVID-19 across national boundaries: The role of government responses," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 54(7), pages 1278-1297, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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