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The Outlook for Credit in the Irish Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Lydon, Reamonn

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • McQuinn, Kieran

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • O'Brien, Martin

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Sherman, Martina

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

This note presents estimates of the likely credit requirements of different sectors of the economy over a short-term horizon to 2013. The measure of credit “demand” used in the analysis is the stock of outstanding loans to the Irish private sector from the resident banking sector. The results indicate a substantial fall in the amount of loans outstanding by 2013, the bulk of which is contained within Property (construction and real estate) and Personal Mortgage lending. Despite the projected fall in the amount of outstanding credit allocated to Mortgage lending, as a sector it is expected to continue to account for the majority of outstanding loans to the Irish private sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Lydon, Reamonn & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Brien, Martin & Sherman, Martina, 2011. "The Outlook for Credit in the Irish Economy," Economic Letters 01/EL/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:ecolet:01/el/11
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    File URL: https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/economic-letters/economic-letter---vol-2011-no-1.pdf?sfvrsn=8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, January.
    4. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean & Conefrey, Thomas, 2010. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2010," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20102, march.
    5. McCoy, Daniel & Duffy, David & Bergin, Adele & Garrett, Shane & McCarthy, Yvonne, 2005. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2005," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20052, march.
    6. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Conefrey, Thomas & O'Sullivan, Cormac, 2010. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2010," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20103, march.
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    Cited by:

    1. McQuinn, Kieran, 2018. "Capacity constraints in the Irish economy? A partial equilibrium approach," Research Notes RN20180401, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor, 2014. "Credit Requirements for Irish Firms in the Economic Recovery," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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