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I know best: Scepticism about the Knowledge of Experts and Peers on Economics Predictions

Author

Listed:
  • Agranov, M.
  • Elliott, M.
  • Ortoleva, P.

Abstract

Are individuals willing to change their minds when experts or their peers disagree with them? In an incentivized experiment on a representative sample, we collect binary predictions on unemployment and inflation. Then, we ask whether participants would like to change their predictions if the (vast) majority of experts (or peers) made the other choice. Very few participants are willing to change their predictions indicating a profound lack of trust in experts and the collective wisdom of peers. Nevertheless, there is variation by demographics. Further, scepticism in experts in this domain helps explain participants intention to vaccinate, providing some external validity.

Suggested Citation

  • Agranov, M. & Elliott, M. & Ortoleva, P., 2024. "I know best: Scepticism about the Knowledge of Experts and Peers on Economics Predictions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2423, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2423
    Note: mle30
    as

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    File URL: https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe2423.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
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    3. Lawrence C. Hamilton & Joel Hartter & Kei Saito, 2015. "Trust in Scientists on Climate Change and Vaccines," SAGE Open, , vol. 5(3), pages 21582440156, August.
    4. Robert J. Blendon, 1997. "Bridging the Gap between the Public's and Economists' Views of the Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 105-118, Summer.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    6. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    7. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "Introduction to "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America"," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Agranov, Marina & Elliott, Matt & Ortoleva, Pietro, 2021. "The importance of Social Norms against Strategic Effects: The case of Covid-19 vaccine uptake," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trust; Experts; Social learning; Information policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General

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