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Continuous Cumulative Prospect Theory and Individual Asset Allocation

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  • Davies, G.B.
  • Satchell, S.E.

Abstract

We implement the Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) framework (Tversky and Kahneman 1992) into a model of individual asset allocation, building on earlier work by Hwang and Satchell (2003) where they derive explicit formulae for the asset allocation decision using a loss aversion utility function. We apply Prelec’s probability weighting function (1998) to continuous distributions and derive the formulae for the optimal asset allocation between risky and safe assets. US equity returns data are used to examine the feasible parameter space. The earlier results of Hwang and Satchell are confirmed and the more complex model is compatible with observed equity proportions. The parameters are highly interconnected, but feasible combinations indicate that more inverse-S shaped deviations from linear probability weightings are associated with lower risk taking behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Davies, G.B. & Satchell, S.E., 2004. "Continuous Cumulative Prospect Theory and Individual Asset Allocation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0467, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0467
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ulrich Schmidt & Chris Starmer & Robert Sugden, 2008. "Third-generation prospect theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 203-223, June.
    3. Hurley, Terrance M., 2010. "A review of agricultural production risk in the developing world," Working Papers 188476, HarvestChoice.
    4. Connors, Richard D. & Sumalee, Agachai, 2009. "A network equilibrium model with travellers' perception of stochastic travel times," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 614-624, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cumulative Prospect Theory; asset allocation; non-linear decisions weights;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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