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Evaluating poverty duration and transition:A spell-approach to rural China

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  • Jing You

Abstract

This article uses a discrete-time multivariate duration model to study poverty transition in rural China between 1989 and 2006. The analysis identifies nonlinear negative duration-dependence for both exit and re-entry rates of poverty. There is significant difference in hazard rates of exit and reentry associated with geographic location and educational level of households, but less related to gender, occupation or ethnic background of household head. The factors facilitating households’ ending a poverty spell are found to be education, land ownership, asset accumulation, health insurance and out-migration, while larger family size and dependence ratio may reduce the chance of exit. This article is forthcoming in Applied Economics Letters, 2011.

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  • Jing You, 2010. "Evaluating poverty duration and transition:A spell-approach to rural China," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 13410, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    • Handle: RePEc:bwp:bwppap:13410
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    2. Wu, Alfred M. & Ramesh, M., 2014. "Poverty Reduction in Urban China: The Impact of Cash Transfers," MPRA Paper 54358, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Anand Sahasranaman, 2020. "Long term dynamics of poverty transitions in India," Papers 2010.06954, arXiv.org.
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    5. Maria S. Floro & Javier Bronfman, 2012. "How Well have Social Protection Schemes in Chile Reduced Household Vulnerability?," Working Papers 2012-03, American University, Department of Economics.
    6. Qun Wang & Lu Shu & Xiaojun Lu, 2023. "Dynamics of multidimensional poverty and its determinants among the middle-aged and older adults in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.

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