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Market Depth, Leverage, and Speculative Bubbles

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  • Zeno Enders
  • Hendrik Hakenes

Abstract

We develop a model of rational bubbles based on leverage and the assumption of an imprecisely known maximum market size. In a bubble, traders push the asset price above its fundamental value in a dynamic way, driven by rational expectations about future price developments. At a previously unknown date, the bubble will endogenously burst. Households optimally decide whether to lend to traders with limited liability. Bubbles increase welfare of the initial asset holders, but reduce welfare of future households. We provide general conditions for the possibility of bubbles depending on uncertainty about market size, traders’ degree of leverage and the risk-free rate. This allows us to discuss several policy measures. Capital requirements and a correctly implemented Tobin tax can prevent bubbles. Implemented incorrectly, however, these measures may create the possibility of bubbles and can reduce welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeno Enders & Hendrik Hakenes, 2021. "Market Depth, Leverage, and Speculative Bubbles," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2021_275, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_275
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicole Branger & Mark Trede & Bernd Wilfling, 2024. "Extracting stock-market bubbles from dividend futures," CQE Working Papers 10724, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubbles; Rational Expectations; Market Size; Liquidity; Financial Crises; Leveraged Investment; Capital Structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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