IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/0808.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling the distribution of mortgage debt

Author

Listed:
  • Levina, Iren

    (Bank of England)

  • Sturrock, Robert

    (Bank of England)

  • Varadi, Alexandra

    (Wadham College, Oxford)

  • Wallis, Gavin

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper presents an approach to modelling the flow and the stock of mortgage debt, using loan‑level data. Our approach allows us to consider different macroeconomic scenarios for the housing market, lenders’ and borrowers’ behaviour, and different calibrations of macroprudential policy interventions in a consistent way. This, in turn, allows us to take a forward-looking view about potential risks stemming from the distribution of mortgage debt, as well as assess the impact of potential macroprudential policies in a forward‑looking manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Levina, Iren & Sturrock, Robert & Varadi, Alexandra & Wallis, Gavin, 2019. "Modelling the distribution of mortgage debt," Bank of England working papers 808, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0808
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2019/modelling-the-distribution-of-mortgage-debt.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007–09," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(1), pages 74-117, August.
    2. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    3. Matija Lozej & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of the LTV and LTI ratios in Ireland," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(21), pages 1507-1511, December.
    4. Chakraborty, Chiranjit & Gimpelewicz, Mariana & Uluc, Arzu, 2017. "A tiger by the tail: estimating the UK mortgage market vulnerabilities from loan-level data," Bank of England working papers 703, Bank of England.
    5. Anna Zabai, 2017. "Household debt: recent developments and challenges," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    6. Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2016. "The Great Mortgaging," 2016 Meeting Papers 185, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiri Gregor & Hana Hejlova, 2020. "The household stress test," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,, Czech National Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nikolay Hristov & Markus Roth, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 7839, CESifo.
    2. Drehmann, Mathias & Juselius, Mikael & Korinek, Anton, 2018. "Going with the flows: New borrowing, debt service and the transmission of credit booms," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2018, Bank of Finland.
    3. Mathias Drehmann & Mikael Juselius & Anton Korinek, 2018. "Going With the Flows: New Borrowing, Debt Service and the Transmission of Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 24549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa, 2020. "Projecting post-crisis house and equity prices since the 1870s:not all crises are alike," MPRA Paper 103164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hristov, Nikolay & Roth, Markus, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and systemic-risk indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3l2vounfl99nvqsr0k24sn3k5l is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Pontines, Victor, 2017. "The financial cycles in four East Asian economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-66.
    9. Atif Mian, 2016. "Comment on "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31, pages 274-278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Dirk Bezemer & Anna Samarina, 2019. "Debt shift, financial development and income inequality," DNB Working Papers 646, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    11. Michael Funke & Rongrong Sun & Linxu Zhu, 2022. "The credit risk of Chinese households: A micro‐level assessment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 254-276, August.
    12. Laeven, Luc & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Rivas, María Dolores Gadea, 2020. "Growth-and-risk trade-off," Working Paper Series 2397, European Central Bank.
    13. Melina Dritsaki & Chaido Dritsaki, 2022. "Comparison of HP Filter and the Hamilton’s Regression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, April.
    14. Kösem, Sevim, 2021. "Income inequality, mortgage debt and house prices," Bank of England working papers 921, Bank of England.
    15. P. Reusens & Ch. Warisse, 2018. "House prices and economic growth in Belgium," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iv, pages 81-106, december.
    16. David Aikman & Jonathan Bridges & Anil Kashyap & Caspar Siegert, 2019. "Would Macroprudential Regulation Have Prevented the Last Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 107-130, Winter.
    17. Franziska Bremus & Thomas Krause & Felix Noth, 2021. "Lender-Specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1936, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Jiří Rajl, 2019. "The Impact of Regulatory Measures on the Development of Household Indebtedness," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(1), pages 5-23.
    19. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
    20. Bashir Ahmad Joo & Simtiha Ishaq Mir, 2024. "Evolution of the Household Debt Narrative: A PRISMA-compliant Systematic Literature Review," Paradigm, , vol. 28(1), pages 84-100, June.
    21. Bremus, Franziska & Krause, Thomas & Noth, Felix, 2017. "Bank-specific shocks and house price growth in the U.S," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    22. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova, 2021. "Credit Supply Shocks and Household Defaults," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp691, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage market; housing market; macroprudential policy; loan‑level data; flow model; stock model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0808. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Media Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.