IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp1936.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Lender-Specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Franziska Bremus
  • Thomas Krause
  • Felix Noth

Abstract

This paper provides evidence for the propagation of idiosyncratic mortgage supply shocks to the macroeconomy. Based on micro-level data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act for the 1990-2016 period, our results suggest that lender-specific mortgage supply shocks affect aggregate mortgage, house price, and employment dynamics at the regional level. The larger the idiosyncratic shocks to newly issued mortgages, the stronger are mortgage, house price, and employment growth. While shocks at the level of shadow banks significantly affect mortgage and house price dynamics, too, they do not matter much for employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Franziska Bremus & Thomas Krause & Felix Noth, 2021. "Lender-Specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1936, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1936
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.813035.de/dp1936.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bremus, Franziska & Buch, Claudia M., 2017. "Granularity in banking and growth: Does financial openness matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 300-316.
    2. Landier, Augustin & Sraer, David & Thesmar, David, 2017. "Banking integration and house price co-movement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 1-25.
    3. Mathias Hoffmann & Iryna Stewen, 2020. "Holes in the Dike: The Global Savings Glut, U.S. House Prices, and the Long Shadow of Banking Deregulation," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 2013-2055.
    4. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2007. "Arbitrage in Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 13704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2014. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1303-1340, July.
    6. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-992, March.
    7. Franziska Bremus & Claudia M. Buch & Katheryn N. Russ & Monika Schnitzer, 2018. "Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Cross‐Country Evidence of Granularity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1785-1825, December.
    8. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Francis Kramarz, 2011. "An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence From French Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1453-1498, September.
    9. di Giovanni, Julian & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Rancière, Romain, 2011. "Power laws in firm size and openness to trade: Measurement and implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 42-52, September.
    10. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2019. "Credit Supply and the Housing Boom," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1317-1350.
    11. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2011. "Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom: U.S. Neighborhoods and Metropolitan Areas, 1993-2009," NBER Working Papers 17374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Brian S. Chen & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein, 2017. "The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 23843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, 2024. "Granular Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(7), pages 2274-2303.
    14. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    15. Tim Bollerslev & Andrew J. Patton & Wenjing Wang, 2016. "Daily House Price Indices: Construction, Modeling, and Longer‐run Predictions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 1005-1025, September.
    16. Tara Rice & Philip E. Strahan, 2010. "Does Credit Competition Affect Small‐Firm Finance?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 861-889, June.
    17. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2018. "How Much Do Idiosyncratic Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 525-587.
    18. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2014. "What Explains the 2007–2009 Drop in Employment?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2197-2223, November.
    19. Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2011. "Rank - 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, January.
    20. Buch, Claudia M. & Neugebauer, Katja, 2011. "Bank-specific shocks and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2179-2187, August.
    21. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    22. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    23. Pedro Gete & Michael Reher, 2018. "Mortgage Supply and Housing Rents," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(12), pages 4884-4911.
    24. Buchak, Greg & Matvos, Gregor & Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2018. "Fintech, regulatory arbitrage, and the rise of shadow banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 453-483.
    25. Blank, Sven & Buch, Claudia M. & Neugebauer, Katja, 2009. "Shocks at large banks and banking sector distress: The Banking Granular Residual," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 353-373, December.
    26. Simon Gilchrist, 2018. "The Real Effects of Credit Booms and Busts: A County-Level Analysis," 2018 Meeting Papers 99, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    27. Favara, Giovanni & Song, Zheng, 2014. "House price dynamics with dispersed information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 350-382.
    28. Richard Stanton & Johan Walden & Nancy Wallace, 2014. "The Industrial Organization of the US Residential Mortgage Market," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 259-288, December.
    29. repec:hal:pseose:hal-01301589 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    31. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    32. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    33. Joseph Gyourko & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2013. "Superstar Cities," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 167-199, November.
    34. Michael Greenstone & Alexandre Mas & Hoai-Luu Nguyen, 2020. "Do Credit Market Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Quasi-experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and "Normal" Economic Times," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 200-225, February.
    35. Owen Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "Leverage and House-Price Dynamics in U.S. Cities," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(3), pages 498-514, Autumn.
    36. Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2016. "The Great Mortgaging," 2016 Meeting Papers 185, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    37. Sigurd Galaasen & Rustam Jamilov & Hélène Rey & Ragnar Juelsrud, 2020. "Granular credit risk," Working Paper 2020/15, Norges Bank.
    38. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani, 2017. "Credit-Induced Boom and Bust," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(11), pages 3711-3758.
    39. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    40. Loutskina, Elena & Strahan, Philip E., 2015. "Financial integration, housing, and economic volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 25-41.
    41. Martin R. Goetz & Luc Laeven & Ross Levine, 2013. "Identifying the Valuation Effects and Agency Costs of Corporate Diversification: Evidence from the Geographic Diversification of U.S. Banks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1787-1823.
    42. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2012. "Credit Supply and House Prices: Evidence from Mortgage Market Segmentation," NBER Working Papers 17832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bremus, Franziska & Krause, Thomas & Noth, Felix, 2021. "Lender-specific mortgage supply shocks and macroeconomic performance in the United States," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Bremus, Franziska & Krause, Thomas & Noth, Felix, 2017. "Bank-specific shocks and house price growth in the U.S," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. Bremus, Franziska & Ludolph, Melina, 2021. "The nexus between loan portfolio size and volatility: Does bank capital regulation matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Daniel I. García, 2018. "Employment in the Great Recession : How Important Were Household Credit Supply Shocks?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Franziska Bremus & Melina Ludolph, 2019. "The Nexus between Loan Portfolio Size and Volatility: Does Banking Regulation Matter?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1822, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Peydró, José-Luis & Jiménez, Gabriel & Kenan, Huremovic & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Daniel García, 2020. "Employment in the Great Recession: How Important Were Household Credit Supply Shocks?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 165-203, February.
    8. Sleibi, Yacoub & Casalin, Fabrizio & Fazio, Giorgio, 2020. "Bank-specific shocks and aggregate leverage: Empirical evidence from a panel of developed countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    9. Maia, Adriano & Oliveira, Guilherme De & Matsushita, Raul & Da Silva, Sergio, 2021. "The granularity of the Brazilian banking market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. Choi, Chi-Young & Hansz, J. Andrew, 2021. "From banking integration to housing market integration - Evidence from the comovement of U.S. Metropolitan House Prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Flannery, Mark J. & Lin, Leming & Wang, Luxi, 2022. "Housing booms and bank growth," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Landier, Augustin & Sraer, David & Thesmar, David, 2017. "Banking integration and house price co-movement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 1-25.
    13. Bremus, Franziska & Buch, Claudia M., 2017. "Granularity in banking and growth: Does financial openness matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 300-316.
    14. Viral V. Acharya & Katharina Bergant & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Fergal Mccann, 2022. "The Anatomy of the Transmission of Macroprudential Policies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2533-2575, October.
    15. Franziska Bremus & Claudia M. Buch & Katheryn N. Russ & Monika Schnitzer, 2018. "Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Cross‐Country Evidence of Granularity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1785-1825, December.
    16. Jackie M. L. Chan & Han (Steffan) Qi, 2025. "Mergers, Firm Size, and Volatility in a Granular Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 55, January.
    17. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
    18. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen, 2022. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Regional Housing Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 499-529, October.
    19. Glancy, David, 2021. "Housing bust, bank lending & employment: Evidence from multimarket banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    20. Varela, Liliana & Alfaro, Laura & Calani, Mauricio, 2021. "Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency," CEPR Discussion Papers 16232, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit supply shocks; mortgage market concentration; real effects from housing markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1936. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.