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The time value of housing: historical evidence on discount rates

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  • Bracke, Philippe

    (Bank of England)

  • Pinchbeck, Edward

    (London School of Economics and Spatial Economics Research Centre)

  • Wyatt, James

    (parthenia.co.uk.)

Abstract

Most London housing transactions involve trading long leases of varying lengths. We exploit this to estimate the time value of housing — the relationship between the price of a property and the term of ownership — over a hundred years and derive implied discount rates. For our empirical analysis, we compile a unique historical data set (1987 to 1992) to abstract from the right to extend leases currently enjoyed by tenants. Across a variety of specifications and samples we find that leasehold prices are consistent with a time declining schedule and low long-term discount rates in housing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Bracke, Philippe & Pinchbeck, Edward & Wyatt, James, 2016. "The time value of housing: historical evidence on discount rates," Bank of England working papers 621, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0621
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    Cited by:

    1. Hilber, Christian A.L. & Palmer, Charles & Pinchbeck, Edward W., 2019. "The energy costs of historic preservation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
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    3. Philippe Bracke & Silvana Tenreyro, 2021. "History Dependence in the Housing Market," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 420-443, April.
    4. Philippe Bracke, 2021. "How Much Do Investors Pay for Houses?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S1), pages 41-73, March.
    5. Hans R.A. Koster & Edward W. Pinchbeck, 2022. "How Do Households Value the Future? Evidence from Property Taxes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 207-239, February.
    6. Eric Fesselmeyer & Haoming Liu & Alberto Salvo, 2022. "Declining discount rates in Singapore's market for privately developed apartments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 330-350, March.
    7. Gautier, Pieter A. & Vuuren, Aico van, 2019. "The effect of land lease on house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    8. Hans R.A. Koster & Jan Rouwendal, 2024. "Housing Market Discount Rates: Evidence From Bargaining And Bidding Wars," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 955-1002, May.
    9. Fesselmeyer, Eric & Liu, Haoming & Salvo, Alberto, 2016. "How Do Households Discount over Centuries? Evidence from Singapore's Private Housing Market," IZA Discussion Papers 9862, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. David Domeij & Tore Ellingsen, 2020. "Rational Bubbles in UK Housing Markets: Comment on “No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets”," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1755-1766, July.
    11. Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2021. "The price–rent ratio inequality in Scottish Cities: fluctuations in discount rates and expected rent growth," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(9), pages 1-15, September.
    12. Nan Liu, 2021. "Market buoyancy, information transparency and pricing strategy in the Scottish housing market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(16), pages 3388-3406, December.
    13. Hans Koster, "undated". "The Welfare Effects of Greenbelt Policy: Evidence from England," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-023/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Liu, Nan & Zhao, Yuan & Ge, Jiaqi, 2018. "Do renters skimp on energy efficiency during economic recessions? Evidence from Northeast Scotland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 164-175.
    15. Meng, Charlotte C., 2023. "The price paid: Heuristic thinking and biased reference points in the housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Tripti Sharma & Declan French & Donal McKillop, 2022. "Risk and Equity Release Mortgages in the UK," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 274-297, February.
    17. French, Declan & McKillop, Donal & Sharma, Tripti, 2018. "What determines UK housing equity withdrawal in later life?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 143-154.
    18. Carmelo Giaccotto & Erasmo Giambona & Yanhui Zhao, 2021. "Short-Term and Long-Term Discount Rates For Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 493-524, October.
    19. Chica-Olmo, Jorge & Cano-Guervos, Rafael, 2020. "Does my house have a premium or discount in relation to my neighbors? A regression-kriging approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    20. Matthew Gibson & Jamie T. Mullins & Alison Hill, 2019. "Climate Risk and Beliefs: Evidence from New York Floodplains," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    21. Andersen, Carsten, 2022. "Do distant rent flows matter? Inferring discount rates from leasehold apartments in Denmark," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; leasehold; discount rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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