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Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending

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  • Vegard H. Larsen
  • Ragnar E. Juelsrud

Abstract

We investigate the impact of macro-related uncertainty on bank lending in Norway. We show that an increase in general macroeconomic uncertainty reduces bank lending. Importantly, however, we show that this effect is largely driven by monetary policy uncertainty, suggesting that uncertainty about the monetary policy stance is key for understanding why macro-related uncertainty impacts bank lending.

Suggested Citation

  • Vegard H. Larsen & Ragnar E. Juelsrud, 2022. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and bank lending," Working Papers No 05/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0108
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3035431
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Burkhard Raunig & Johann Scharler & Friedrich Sindermann, 2017. "Do Banks Lend Less in Uncertain Times?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(336), pages 682-711, October.
    3. Vegard Høghaug Larsen, 2021. "Components Of Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 769-788, May.
    4. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    5. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    6. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    7. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 20-36.
    8. Fu, Buben & Luo, Daqing, 2021. "Monetary policy uncertainty and bank leverage: Evidence from China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. Cho, Deaha & Han, Yoonshin & Oh, Joonseok & Rogantini Picco, Anna, 2020. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Uncertainty Shocks," Dynare Working Papers 61, CEPREMAP.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic uncertainty; Textual analysis; Bank lending;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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