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Interbank interest rates and the risk premium

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  • Henri Pagès

    (Fondation Banque de France pour la Recherche)

Abstract

The paper presents a one-factor affine model of the term structure of Libor rates with autocorrelated measurement errors. It can be viewed as a central tendency model, with the theoretical arbitrage-free rates serving as stochastic means to which the observed rates revert. Two estimation techniques are compared, one based on a no-measurement-error assumption, the other on Kalman filtering. The estimates are then used in standard yield spread regressions with a view to accounting for the departure of future short rates from what the expectations hypothesis would predict.

Suggested Citation

  • Henri Pagès, 1999. "Interbank interest rates and the risk premium," BIS Working Papers 81, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:81
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Farshid Jamshidian, 1997. "LIBOR and swap market models and measures (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 293-330.
    2. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," BIS Working Papers 71, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Moreno, Manuel, 1995. "On the term structure of Interbank interest rates: jump-diffusion processes and option pricing," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 7074, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    4. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. "Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-1282, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ippei Fujiwara & Yuki Teranishi, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics under Staggered Loan Contracts," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-11, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

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