IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/31.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing the quantity theory using long-run averaged cross-country data

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Gerlach

Abstract

Using data from Barro (1990), Dwyer and Hafer (1988), Duck (1993) and Vogel (1974), we revisit the finding that cross-sectional regressions of long-run average inflation on money growth and real income growth support the quantity theory, and conclude that, as is frequently argued, this depends on the inclusion in the sample of a few countries with very high money growth. The most likely reason for the rejection of the theory when these data points are excluded is simultaneity bias, the importance of which is mitigated when high-inflation countries are included in the sample. Omitted variables bias may also play a role, but measurement errors are unlikely to do so.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Gerlach, 1995. "Testing the quantity theory using long-run averaged cross-country data," BIS Working Papers 31, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:31
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work31.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work31.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duck, Nigel W., 1988. "Money, output and prices: : An empirical study using long-term cross country data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1603-1619, October.
    2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-1014, December.
    3. Anna J. Schwartz, 1987. "Secular Price Change in Historical Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Money in Historical Perspective, pages 78-109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Burda, Michael & Wyplosz, Charles, 2017. "Macroeconomics: a European Text," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 7, number 9780198737513.
    5. Lothian, James R, 1985. "Equilibrium Relationships between Money and Other Economic Variables," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 828-835, September.
    6. Duck, Nigel W, 1993. "Some International Evidence on the Quantity Theory of Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 1-12, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Janice Boucher Breuer & John Mcdermott & Warren E. Weber, 2018. "Time Aggregation and the Relationship between Inflation and Money Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 351-375, March.
    2. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Money growth, output gaps and inflation at low and high frequency: Spectral estimates for Switzerland," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 411-435, February.
    3. Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "The ECB's Two Pillars," CEPR Discussion Papers 3689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Stefan Behrendt, 2013. "Monetary Transmission via the Central Bank Balance Sheet," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 49-2013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Moosa, Imad A., 1997. "Testing the long-run neutrality of money in a developing economy: the case of India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 139-155, June.
    2. Habibullah, Muzafar & Hong, Puah & Mohamed, Azali, 2001. "Testing Long-Run Neutrality of Money in Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 35, pages 69-83.
    3. Chin-Hong Puah, & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Kian-Ping Lim, 2006. "Testing Long-Run Neutrality Of Money: Evidence From Malaysian Stock Market," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 15-37, July.
    4. Lothian, James R., 1997. "Multi-country evidence on the behavior of purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-35, February.
    5. Ashra, Sunil & Chattopadhyay, Saumen & Chaudhuri, Kausik, 2004. "Deficit, money and price: the Indian experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 289-299, April.
    6. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Evidence of the Long-Run Neutrality of Money: The Case of South Korea and Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(64), pages 1-18.
    7. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:64:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Moazzami, Bakhtiar & Gupta, Kanhaya L., 1995. "The quantity theory of money and its long-run implications," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 667-682.
    9. John R. Moroney, 2002. "Money Growth, Output Growth, and Inflation: Estimation of a Modern Quantity Theory," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 398-413, October.
    10. Goohoon Kwon & Lavern McFarlane & Wayne Robinson, 2009. "Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(3), pages 476-515, August.
    11. Lothian, James R. & McCarthy, Cornelia H., 2009. "The behavior of money and other economic variables: Two natural experiments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1204-1220, November.
    12. James Lothian & Yusif Simaan, 1998. "International Financial Relations Under the Current Float: Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 293-313, October.
    13. Kujtim Avdiu & Stephan Unger, 2022. "Predicting Inflation—A Holistic Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-14, March.
    14. Barbara Roffia & Andrea Zaghini, 2007. "Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 241-280, December.
    15. Janice Boucher Breuer & John Mcdermott & Warren E. Weber, 2018. "Time Aggregation and the Relationship between Inflation and Money Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 351-375, March.
    16. Lothian, James R. & Pownall, Rachel A.J. & Koedijk, Kees G., 2013. "I discovered the peso problem: Irving Fisher and the UIP puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 5-17.
    17. Gertler, Pavel & Hofmann, Boris, 2018. "Monetary facts revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 154-170.
    18. Bruce Smith, 1988. "The relationship between money and prices: some historical evidence reconsidered," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 12(Sum), pages 18-32.
    19. Cheng-Wen Lee & Andrian Dolfriandra Huruta, 2021. "Reexamining The Quantity Theory Of Money: An Empirical Analysis From The Joint Hypothesis," Economic Review: Journal of Economics and Business, University of Tuzla, Faculty of Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 3-12, May.
    20. Dwyer, Gerald P. & Fisher, Mark, 2009. "Inflation and monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1221-1241, November.
    21. Saumitra, Bhaduri & Raja, Sethudurai, 2012. "A note on excess money growth and inflation dynamics: evidence from threshold regression," MPRA Paper 38036, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.