IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v38y2013icp5-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

I discovered the peso problem: Irving Fisher and the UIP puzzle

Author

Listed:
  • Lothian, James R.
  • Pownall, Rachel A.J.
  • Koedijk, Kees G.

Abstract

Irving Fisher was the first economist to posit what has come to be known as uncovered interest parity relation. He was also the first to offer a peso-problem type explanation for important episodes in which it was violated. After reviewing his theoretical and empirical work on this subject, we go on to reexamine both his data and several other bodies – two consisting of multi-country panel data and a third consisting of a two-century long time series for the United States and the United Kingdom. We find evidence in these data of the important role played by episodic phenomena in disturbing the UIP relation. Like Fisher, we find that the influence of such phenomena dissipates over time. Over the long term these errors prove to be less important and UIP receives empirical support.

Suggested Citation

  • Lothian, James R. & Pownall, Rachel A.J. & Koedijk, Kees G., 2013. "I discovered the peso problem: Irving Fisher and the UIP puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 5-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:38:y:2013:i:c:p:5-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.06.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560613000764
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.06.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert W. Dimand, 1999. "Irving Fisher and the Fisher Relation: Setting the Record Straight," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 744-750, May.
    2. Lothian, James R. & Wu, Liuren, 2011. "Uncovered interest-rate parity over the past two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 448-473, April.
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-1014, December.
    4. Paul Hallwood, C. & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2000. "Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 605-620, December.
    5. James Lothian & Yusif Simaan, 1998. "International Financial Relations Under the Current Float: Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 293-313, October.
    6. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    7. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    8. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1982. "Monetary Trends in the United States and United Kingdom: Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867–1975," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie82-2.
    9. Thomas M. Humphrey, 1983. "The early history of the real/nominal interest rate relationship," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 69(May), pages 2-10.
    10. Lothian, James R, 1985. "Equilibrium Relationships between Money and Other Economic Variables," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 828-835, September.
    11. Fisher, Irving, 1907. "The Rate of Interest," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number fisher1907.
    12. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
    13. Friedman, Milton & Schwartz, Anna J, 1991. "Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Economic Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 39-49, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lothian, James R., 2016. "Uncovered interest parity: The long and the short of it," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-7.
    2. Nils Herger, 2017. "Testing the interest parity condition with Irving Fisher's example of Indian rupee and sterling bonds in the London financial market (1869 - 1906)," Working Papers 17.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    3. Ames, Matthew & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Peters, Gareth W., 2017. "Violations of uncovered interest rate parity and international exchange rate dependences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 162-187.
    4. Ferreira, Paulo & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2020. "Uncovered interest rate parity through the lens of fractal methods: Evidence from the European Union," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 553(C).
    5. Jorge Andrés Muñoz Mendoza & Carmen Lissette Veloso Ramos & Sandra María Sepúlveda Yelpo & Carlos Leandro Delgado Fuentealba & Edinson Edgardo Cornejo Saavedra, 2022. "Exchange Markets and Stock Markets Integration in Latin-America," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 17(3), pages 1-24, Julio - S.
    6. Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Ogebe, Joseph O., 2019. "The validity of uncovered interest parity: Evidence from african members and non-member of the organisation of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 229-249.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Campbell-Pownall, R.A.J. & Koedijk, C.G. & Lothian, J.R. & Mahieu, R.J., 2007. "Irving Fisher and the UIP Puzzle: Meeting the Expectations a Century Later," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-088-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    2. Lothian, James R. & Wu, Liuren, 2011. "Uncovered interest-rate parity over the past two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 448-473, April.
    3. Lothian, James R. & Koedijk, Kees & Mahieu, Ronald & Campbell, Rachel, 2007. "Irving Fisher, Expectational Errors, and the UIP Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 6294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 7-21, February.
    5. Straetmans, Stefan T.M. & Versteeg, Roald J. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2013. "Are capital controls in the foreign exchange market effective?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 36-53.
    6. Michael Jetter & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2013. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Forward Discount Puzzle," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10729, Universidad EAFIT.
    7. Lawrence Goldberg & James Lothian & John Okunev, 2003. "Has International Financial Integration Increased?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 299-317, July.
    8. Alfred A. Haug & William G. Dewald, 2012. "Money, Output, And Inflation In The Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880–2001," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 773-787, July.
    9. James R. Rhodes, 2006. "DEVOLUTION OF THE FISHER EQUATION: Rational Appreciation to Money Illusion," GRIPS Discussion Papers 08-04, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, revised Jun 2008.
    10. Lothian, James R., 2016. "Purchasing power parity and the behavior of prices and nominal exchange rates across exchange-rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 5-21.
    11. Bhatti, Razzaque H., 2014. "The existence of uncovered interest parity in the CIS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.
    12. John R. Moroney, 2002. "Money Growth, Output Growth, and Inflation: Estimation of a Modern Quantity Theory," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 398-413, October.
    13. Boyer, Russell S., 2009. "Reflections on Milton Friedman's contributions to open economy money/macro," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1097-1116, November.
    14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wang, Wenhao, 2022. "Uncovered interest rate parity redux: Non-uniform effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-151.
    15. Michael D. Goldberg & Olesia Kozlova & Deniz Ozabaci, 2020. "Forward Rate Bias in Developed and Developing Countries: More Risky Not Less Rational," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-26, December.
    16. Robert W. Dimand & Rebeca Gomez Betancourt, 2012. "Retrospectives: Irving Fisher's Appreciation and Interest (1896) and the Fisher Relation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 185-196, Fall.
    17. James Lothian & Yusif Simaan, 1998. "International Financial Relations Under the Current Float: Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 293-313, October.
    18. Lothian, James R., 2014. "Monetary policy and the twin crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 197-210.
    19. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2009. "Comment on "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 361-384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Lothian, James R., 2016. "Uncovered interest parity: The long and the short of it," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-7.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Peso problems forward discount bias; International parities; Expectational errors; Irving Fisher;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • B19 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:38:y:2013:i:c:p:5-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.