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Toward Developing Estimates Of U.S. Imports Of Illegal Drugs

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  • Sarah Atkinson

    (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Abstract

This paper explores potential ways to develop experimental estimates of the value of U.S. imports of illegal drugs. It builds on the initial exploration of this topic by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in Soloveichik (2019), which presents experimental estimates of U.S. domestic consumption of illegal drugs and of import of illegal drugs into the United States. In this paper, I extend Soloveichik’s research by exploring the feasibility of developing estimates of imports of methamphetamines and marijuana using seizure data, and I evaluate the extent to which source data allow us to estimate heroin and cocaine imports by geography. International guidelines for national economic accounts (the System of National Accounts 2008, or SNA) and international economic accounts (the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, sixth edition) explicitly recommend that some illegal market activity should be included in measured output. Soloveichik suggests that illegal drugs comprise the largest share of imports of this activity for the United States and would have added $111 billion to U.S. GDP in 2017.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Atkinson, 2020. "Toward Developing Estimates Of U.S. Imports Of Illegal Drugs," BEA Working Papers 0171, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:bea:wpaper:0171
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    File URL: https://www.bea.gov/system/files/papers/WP2020-2.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fiona M Underwood & Robert W Burn & Tom Milliken, 2013. "Dissecting the Illegal Ivory Trade: An Analysis of Ivory Seizures Data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-12, October.
    2. Jeffrey A. Miron, 2003. "The Effect of Drug Prohibition on Drug Prices: Evidence from the Markets for Cocaine and Heroin," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 522-530, August.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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