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Un Análisis de Cointegración para el Riesgo de Crédito

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Gutiérrez Rueda
  • Diego M. Vásquez E.

Abstract

Es común en la literatura considerar el riesgo de crédito como una de las principales fuentes de inestabilidad del sistema financiero. Con el fin de evaluar la sensibilidad del riesgo de crédito ante cambios en algunas variables macroeconómicas y sus posibles efectos sobre la rentabilidad de los intermediarios del sistema, se realizan pruebas de stress por medio de multiplier analysis. Los resultados sugieren que los establecimientos de crédito son significativamente vulnerables ante cambios en la actividad económica y en la tasa de desempleo; y en menor medida ante cambios en la tasa de interés. Sin embargo, bajo escenarios extremos y poco probables, la reducción en la rentabilidad del sistema no supera el nivel de liquidación establecido por la regulación.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Gutiérrez Rueda & Diego M. Vásquez E., 2008. "Un Análisis de Cointegración para el Riesgo de Crédito," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 035, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:temest:035
    DOI: 10.32468/tef.35
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
    2. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    3. Krasker, William S. & Kuh, Edwin & Welsch, Roy E., 1983. "Estimation for dirty data and flawed models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 651-698, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Gutiérrez Rueda, 2010. "Un análisis de riesgo de crédito de las empresas del sector real y sus determinantes," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-40, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Riesgo de crédito; Pruebas de stress.;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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