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Detección de Anomalías y Poder de Mercado en el Sector Eléctrico Colombiano

Author

Listed:
  • Alvaro J. Riascos Villegas
  • Julian Chitiva
  • Carlos Salazar

Abstract

En este trabajo introducimos una metodología de generación de alertas de potenciales prácticas anticompetitivas en el mercado mayorista de electricidad colombiano. La metodología se compone de dos partes: (1) Con base en la disponibilidad declarada de los agentes, se identifican aquellos que potencialmente pueden tener un impacto alto en el precio de bolsa (i.e., pivotales en el sentido del índice de oferta residual - IOR) y (2) Usando métodos de aprendizaje de máquinas se identifican las ofertas de energía (i.e., precios) de aquellos agentes pivotales que, de acuerdo al estado del mercado y su historia (i.e., oferta pasadas, recursos hídricos, tecnología de generación, etc.) se podrían considerar atípicos o anómalos. Con base en estos dos indicadores se generan alertas de potenciales prácticas anticompetitivas. Reportamos los resultados de la aplicación de esta metodología al mercado mayorista colombiano en el período Agosto 16, 2018 - Julio 30, 2019. Una característica importante de esta metodología es que puede ser aplicada con la información disponible del operador del sistema, 24 horas antes de que se observen los resultados del mercado y generando alertas ex-ante a la realización de los eventos. Esta posibilidad de generar alertas casi en tiempo real es aun más importante de cara al nuevo mercado intradiario que próximamente entraría en rigor en el sistema eléctrico colombiano. **** We introduce a methodology for generating alerts of potential anti-competitive practices in the Colombian wholesale electricity market. The methodology is made up of two parts: (1) Based on the declared availability of the agents, those that can potentially have a high impact on the stock price are identified (i.e., pivotal in the sense of the residual supply index - IOR ) and (2) Using machine learning methods, the energy offers (i.e., prices) of those pivotal agents are identified that, according to the state of the market and its history (i.e., past offers, water resources, generation technology, etc.) could be considered atypical or anomalous. Based on these two indicators, alerts of potential anti-competitive practices are generated. We report the results of the application of this methodology to the Colombian wholesale market in the period August 16, 2018 - July 30, 2019. An important characteristic of this methodology is that it can be applied with the information available from the system operator, 24 hours before that the results of the market are observed and generating alerts ex ante to the realization of the events. This possibility of generating alerts almost in real time is even more important in view of the new intra-day market that will soon come into force in the Colombian electricity system.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvaro J. Riascos Villegas & Julian Chitiva & Carlos Salazar, 2022. "Detección de Anomalías y Poder de Mercado en el Sector Eléctrico Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 1217, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1217
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1217
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Álvaro Riascos, Miguel Bernal, Luciano de Castro and Shmuel Oren, 2016. "Transition to Centralized Unit Commitment An Econometric Analysis of Colombia's Experience," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    2. Bataille, Marc & Steinmetz, Alexander & Thorwarth, Susanne, 2014. "Screening instruments for monitoring market power in wholesale electricity markets: Lessons from applications in Germany," DICE Discussion Papers 150, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pool Electricity Markets; Anomaly Detection; Market Power; Machine Learning; Pool Electricity Markets; Anomaly Detection; Market Power; Machine Learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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