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Los Equilibrios Macroeconómicos y el Banco Central:El Caso Colombiano

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  • Salomón Kalmanovitz

Abstract

El Banco Central tiene su mayor impacto en la macroeconomía al determinar la oferta de dinero primario. De su cruce con la demanda por base monetaria se deriva cierta tasa de interés a la vista que se transmite con rezagos a los mercados monetarios de mayor plazo y conduce a la economía por una senda de expansión o contracción, en tanto la oferta de crédito apuntala la demanda por bienes durables, vivienda y financia nuevas inversiones o su disminución las aletarga.2 Con todo, la tasa de interés tiene sus propios determinantes, entre otros, la oferta de ahorro financiero y el nivel de riesgo que experimentan los agentes frente a las instituciones financieras o frente a la moneda del país. Este precio del dinero es entonces susceptible a las expectativas que tengan los agentes sobre el futuro y sobre la economía. Por lo tanto, la autoridad monetaria puede estar lejos de controlar todas las variables que inciden en la determinación de las tasas de interés. La tasa de interés debe ser compatible con otros equilibrios macroeconómicos: si es muy baja, por ejemplo, puede conducir a un exceso de actividad y a profundizar el desequilibrio externo del país por la vía del aumento de importaciones y una salida de capital o si es muy alta puede atraer capital externo y propiciar una revaluación de la moneda. En países en desarrollo es frecuente encontrar que los políticos se impacientan con el ritmo de expansión que lleva la economía o por la renuencia del sector privado a pagar impuestos y tienden a presionar por una mayor oferta monetaria que financie mayores niveles de crédito y de gasto público. Cuando estas presiones son exitosas, la inflación se incrementa e introduce cambios frecuentes de precios relativos, genera neblina en el sistema de información y, por lo tanto, induce la toma de decisiones equivocadas por los agentes económicos, tiende a revaluar la tasa de cambio, descrema los ingresos fijos y produce algunos ganadores (bancos y gobierno) sin que participen en act
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Salomón Kalmanovitz, 1999. "Los Equilibrios Macroeconómicos y el Banco Central:El Caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 114, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:114
    DOI: 10.32468/be.114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Williamson, 1996. "Crawling Band as an Exchange Rate Regime: Lessons from Chile, Colombia and Israel, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 14.
    2. Roberto Steiner & Adolfo Barajas & Natalia Salazar Ferro, 1997. "El margen de intermediación bancaria en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    3. José Darío Uribe, 1994. "Inflación y Crecimiento Económico en Colombia: 1951-1992," Borradores de Economia 001, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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