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Consideraciones sobre el Comportamiento de la Tasa de Cambio al interior de las Bandas

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  • Alberto Carrasquila
  • Arturo Galindo

Abstract

Desde enero de 1994 la política cambiaria colombiana se basa en un sistema formal de bandas para la tasa de cambio, mediante el cual el Banco Central se compromete a intervenir en el mercado cuando la tasa de cambio llega a unos determinados niveles mínimo y máximo, definidos anteriormente y conocidos por los agentes. Este sistema es muy común a lo largo del tiempo y el espacio(1). En la discusión mas reciente, el esquema se realiza usualmente en una línea de investigación que surge con el trabajo de Krugman (1991). En este modelo se establece que en el anterior de las bandas- la tasa de cambio debe tener un comportamiento y una distribución probabilística particular. Ahora bien, la evidencia empírica internacional no permite concluir de manera clara que el comportamiento de la tasa de cambio sea el que se deriva del modelo analítico(2) El comportamiento previsto por el modelo para la tasa de cambio en el interior de las bandas resulta -obviamente- de los supuestos inherentes al mismo. Las limitaciones que ha tenido el modelo en capturar aspectos sobresalientes del comportamiento observado de la tasa de cambio, por ende, ha constituido una directriz esencial en el programa investigativo reciente (1991-1995). En la literatura se han analizado con especial cuidado los siguientes factores específicos; (i) Plena credibilidad del público en el sistema (ii) No intervención de las autoridades en su interior (iii) Completa flexibilidad de precios. Relajar los supuestos (i) y (iii) implica un comportamiento distinto al señalado en el modelo básico. En concreto, el hecho de que los agentes no crean que la banda se pueda sostener implicará ataques a la política cambiaria y una ubicación excesiva (frente a la planteada por el modelo) de la tasa de cambio observada en las franjas extremas de las bandas. De otra parte, la intervención de las autoridades puede sesgar la tasa de cambio a ubicarse en la parte media de la banda, o cerca de aquella en la cual efectúa la intervención.
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Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Carrasquila & Arturo Galindo, 1995. "Consideraciones sobre el Comportamiento de la Tasa de Cambio al interior de las Bandas," Borradores de Economia 034, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:034
    DOI: 10.32468/be.34
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
    2. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
    3. Beetsma, Roel M W J & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1994. "Intramarginal Interventions, Bands and the Pattern of EMS Exchange Rate Distributions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 583-602, August.
    4. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-536, June.
    5. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    6. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Steiner, 1996. "La reciente afluencia de capital extranjero a Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, June.

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