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Forecasting the industrial production index for the euro area through forecasts for the main countries

Author

Listed:
  • Roberta Zizza

    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

Abstract

The aim of the present work is to obtain short-term predictions of the monthly volume of the industrial production of the euro area. Preliminary information on the behaviour of this variable is needed, since the index is released with a lag of about two months. A model based on the US industrial production index and on the single-country forecasts of the production indices for the main euro-area countries is proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberta Zizza, 2002. "Forecasting the industrial production index for the euro area through forecasts for the main countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 441, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_441_02
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Giancarlo & Lupi Claudio, 2003. "Forecasting Euro-Area Industrial Production Using (Mostly) Business Surveys Data," ISAE Working Papers 33, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    2. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
    4. Ronald Benabou, 2002. "Human capital, technical change and the welfare state," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 465, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
    6. Alberto Baffigi & Antonio Bassanetti, 2004. "Turning-point indicators from business surveys: real-time detection for the euro area and its major member countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 500, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    prediction; industrial production; forecast combination; encompassing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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