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Personal Saving and Social Security in Italy: Fresh Evidence from a Time Series Analysis

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  • Francesco Zollino

    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

The paper provides an econometric analysis of the aggregate saving function of Italian households in the vein of the life cycle theory. Results from an ECM representation based on yearly data for 1951-1998 point to depressive effects on private consumption of recent reforms of social security, actual and expected for next few years. In order to compensate for both reductions in actual pension payments and increased uncertainty about their future claims, households stepped up accumulation of real and financial assets since the beginning of the nineties. First estimates of capital gains do not show a significant impact on consumption demand, in the short and in the long period: their high volatility has likely hindered a fair assessment of their contribution to personal purchasing power on the part of households. Demographic changes, while in the long run not seemingly determined in conjunction with the economic variables we consider, turn out to play a significant role in the evolution of consumption demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Zollino, 2001. "Personal Saving and Social Security in Italy: Fresh Evidence from a Time Series Analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 417, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_417_01
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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2001/2001-0417/tema_417_01.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dicks-Mireaux, Louis & King, Mervyn, 1984. "Pension wealth and household savings: Tests of robustness," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 115-139.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luigi Cannari & Giovanni D'Alessio & Romina Gambacorta, 2007. "Capital gains and wealth distribution in Italy," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 2, volume 26, pages 129-156, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Dario Focarelli, 2002. "Bootstrap bias-correction procedure in estimating long-run relationships from dynamic panels, with an application to money demand in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 440, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    life cycle; saving; pension wealth; capital gains; demographic changes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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