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Inflation expectations and misallocation of resources: evidence from Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Tiziano Ropele

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Olivier Coibion

    (University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

Using Italian data that includes both firms' inflation forecasts and external information on their balance sheets, we study the causal effect of changes in the dispersion of beliefs about future inflation on the misallocation of resources. We find that as disagreement increases, so does misallocation. In times of low inflation, the aggregate TFP loss from the dispersed expectations-induced misallocation is moderate, but we argue that it is likely to become quite significant in times of high inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Tiziano Ropele & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "Inflation expectations and misallocation of resources: evidence from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1437, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1437_23
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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2023/2023-1437/en_tema_1437.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Diego Marino Fages, 2024. "Motivated Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from the Presidential Elections in Argentina," Discussion Papers 2024-08, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    2. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Min Wei, 2024. "Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2024-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Min Wei, 2024. "Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2024-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Masuda, Kazuto, 2024. "The Special Theory of Employment, Exchange Rate, and Money With the Focus on Inflation and Technological Progress," SocArXiv nxshd, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    misallocation; inflation expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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