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The role of majority status in close elections studies

Author

Listed:
  • Marta Crispino

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Matteo Alpino

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Many studies exploit close elections in a regression discontinuity framework to identify partisan effects, i.e. the effect of having a given party in office on the outcome. We argue that, when conducted on single-member districts, such analysis may identify a compound effect: the partisan effect, plus the majority status effect, i.e. the effect of being represented by a member of the legislative majority. We provide a simple strategy to disentangle the two effects, and test it with simulations. Finally, we show the empirical relevance of this issue using real data.

Suggested Citation

  • Marta Crispino & Matteo Alpino, 2022. "The role of majority status in close elections studies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1391, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1391_22
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2022/2022-1391/en_tema_1391.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    partisan effect; single-member districts; regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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