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Assessing the risks of asset overvaluation: models and challenges

Author

Listed:
  • Sara Cecchetti

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Marco Taboga

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We propose methods to compute confidence bands for the fundamental values of stocks and corporate bonds. These methods take into account uncertainty about future cash flows and about the discount factors used to discount the cash flows. We use them to assess the current degree of under-/over-valuation of asset prices. We find no evidence of over-valuation of the stocks and corporate bonds of the major economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Cecchetti & Marco Taboga, 2017. "Assessing the risks of asset overvaluation: models and challenges," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1114, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1114_17
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2017/2017-1114/en_tema_1114.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    3. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices (Nobel Prize Lecture)," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1936, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    6. Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2005. "The asset price bubble in Japan in the 1980s: lessons for financial and macroeconomic stability," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Real estate indicators and financial stability, volume 21, pages 42-62, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Joost Driessen, 2005. "Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 165-195.
    8. Brennan, Michael, 1971. "A Note on Dividend Irrelevance and the Gordon Valuation Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1115-1122, December.
    9. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
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    12. John M. Griffin & Jeffrey H. Harris & Tao Shu & Selim Topaloglu, 2011. "Who Drove and Burst the Tech Bubble?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1251-1290, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Neri & Stefano Siviero, 2019. "The non-standard monetary policy measures of the ECB: motivations, effectiveness and risks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 486, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Benigno Pierpaolo & Canofari Paolo & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Messori Marcello, 2020. "The ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme: Theory, effects, and risks," wp.comunite 00147, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    3. Sara Cecchetti, 2019. "A Quantitative Analysis of Risk Premia in the Corporate Bond Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-33, December.
    4. Sara Cecchetti, 2017. "A quantitative analysis of risk premia in the corporate bond market," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1141, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock risk premium; bond risk premium; fundamental value; under-/over-valuation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics

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