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Monetary policy surprises over time

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  • Marcello Pericoli

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Giovanni Veronese

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We document how the impact of monetary surprises in the euro area and the US on financial markets has changed since 1999. We use a definition of monetary policy surprises that singles out movements in the long end of the yield curve, rather than those that change nearby futures on the central bank reference rates. By focusing only on this component of monetary policy our results are more comparable over time. We find a hump-shaped response of the yield curve to monetary policy surprises, both in the pre-crisis period and since 2013. During the crisis years, Fed path-surprises, largely through their effect on term premia, account for the impact on interest rates, which is found to be increasing in tenor. In the euro area, the path-surprises reflect shifts in sovereign spreads and have a large impact on the entire constellation of interest rates, exchange rates and equity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Pericoli & Giovanni Veronese, 2017. "Monetary policy surprises over time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1102, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1102_17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Richhild Moessner, 2018. "Effects of asset purchases and financial stability measures on term premia in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(43), pages 4617-4631, September.
    2. Lemke, Wolfgang & Werner, Thomas, 2020. "Dissecting long-term Bund yields in the run-up to the ECB’s public sector purchase programme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    3. Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide & Uno, Jun, 2018. "Central bank-driven mispricing," SAFE Working Paper Series 226, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2018.
    4. Martina Cecioni, 2018. "ECB monetary policy and the euro exchange rate," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1172, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Marco Bottone & Alfonso Rosolia, 2019. "Monetary policy, firms’ inflation expectations and prices: causal evidence from firm-level data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1218, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy surprises; unconventional monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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