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Assessing credit risk sensitivity to climate and energy shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Di Virgilio

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Ivan Faiella

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Alessandro Mistretta

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Simone Narizzano

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We apply a novel method to estimate the impact of a change in energy expenditure on Italian firms’ credit risk, measured as the 12-month default probability (PD). We examine a shock to energy expenditure originating from different carbon tax levels and then 1) shock energy prices; 2) re‑compute the firm-level energy mix; 3) assess the impact on the firm PD via the re‑calculation of its financial statement. The flexibility of this approach, which includes scope 2 emissions, enables us to assess the transmission channels of energy shocks and firm exposure in detail. Our results show that the introduction of carbon taxation would have a limited impact on credit risk: a carbon tax of EUR 40, EUR 90 and EUR 140 per tonne of CO2 would raise the average PD by 0.6, 2.3 and 4.1 basis points, respectively. The effect is slightly larger for the Agriculture and Services sectors, while there is no clear pattern relating to firm size.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Di Virgilio & Ivan Faiella & Alessandro Mistretta & Simone Narizzano, 2023. "Assessing credit risk sensitivity to climate and energy shocks," Mercati, infrastrutture, sistemi di pagamento (Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems) 41, Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Markets and Payment System.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wpmisp:mip_041_23
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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/mercati-infrastrutture-e-sistemi-di-pagamento/approfondimenti/2023-041/N.41-MISP.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Irene Monasterolo, 2020. "Climate Change and the Financial System," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 299-320, October.
    2. Faiella, Ivan & Lavecchia, Luciano & Michelangeli, Valentina & Mistretta, Alessandro, 2022. "A climate stress test on the financial vulnerability of Italian households and firms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 396-417.
    3. Ivan Faiella & Luciano Lavecchia, 2021. "Households' energy demand and the effects of carbon pricing in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 614, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Ivan Faiella & Alessandro Mistretta, 2015. "Spesa energetica e competitività delle imprese italiane," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(3), pages 85-121.
    5. Aiello, Maria Alessia & Angelico, Cristina, 2023. "Climate change and credit risk: The effect of carbon tax on Italian banks' business loan default rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 187-201.
    6. Körding, Julia & Resch, Florian, 2022. "Common minimum standards for incorporating climate change risks into in-house credit assessment systems in the Eurosystem," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 6.
    7. Filippo Giovannelli & Alessandra Iannamorelli & Aviram Levy & Marco Orlandi, 2020. "The In-house credit assessment system of Banca d'Italia," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 586, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    9. Robert Vermeulen & Edo Schets & Melanie Lohuis & Barbara Kolbl & David-Jan Jansen & Willem Heeringa, 2018. "An energy transition risk stress test for the financial system of the Netherlands," DNB Occasional Studies 1607, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Weth, Mark A. & Baltzer, Markus & Bertram, Christoph & Hilaire, Jérôme & Johnston, Craig, 2024. "The scenario-based equity price impact induced by greenhouse gas emissions," Discussion Papers 30/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; carbon tax; credit risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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