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Inflation surprises and inflation expectations in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Marcello Miccoli

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Stefano Neri

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Since 2013 the inflation rate in the euro area has fallen steadily, reaching all-time lows at the end of 2014. Market-based measures of inflation expectations (such as inflation swaps) have also declined to extremely low levels, which suggests increasing concern about the credibility of the ECB in maintaining price stability. Inflation releases have often surprised analysts on the downside. Our analysis shows that market-based inflation expectations, at medium-term maturities, are affected by these �surprises�, over and above the impact of changing macroeconomic conditions and oil prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Miccoli & Stefano Neri, 2015. "Inflation surprises and inflation expectations in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 265, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_265_15
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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2015-0265/QEF_265.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianna Riggi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2014. "Surprise! Euro area inflation has fallen," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 237, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; inflation expectations; inflation swap contracts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models

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