IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/2220.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A quantification of the evolution of bilateral trade flows Once bilateral RTAs are implemented

Author

Listed:
  • Blanca Jiménez-García

    (Banco de España)

  • Julio Rodríguez

    (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid)

Abstract

In this paper we study how 103 bilateral Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) shape bilateral trade flows over time. The analysis of quarterly trade flows from 1982 Q4 to 2018 Q4 shows dynamic differences between RTAs and among trading partners. Results show that countries benefit unevenly from bilateral RTAs. The positive global trade trend since the 1990s and the negative effect of the 2008 economic crisis are captured by a factor analysis that allows us to study specifically how trade agreements affect bilateral trade asymmetrically. On average, RTAs lead to a 10% increase in bilateral trade flows above the mean trend, but disparities are found since Partial Scope Agreements (PSAs) tend to boost bilateral trade more than Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) (21% compared to 9%). However, most of the effects of PSAs occur during the first four quarters after the agreements come into force, whereas FTAs have effects over a longer period. The current study uses cluster analysis to classify bilateral trade flows into homogeneous groups according to the dynamic impact that RTAs have on them. This allows the heterogeneity between clusters to be explored. Moreover, the results show a difference relating to the economic crisis starting in 2008: in general, the impact on bilateral trade of agreements in force before 2008 is positive (30%), while it is negative for agreements signed after 2008 (-9%). This indicates that RTAs play a heterogeneous role as a cycle smoothing mechanism. Finally, there is evidence of an anticipation effect: we find that for more than half of the bilateral trade flows studied, the effect of the bilateral RTA is detected before it comes into force.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanca Jiménez-García & Julio Rodríguez, 2022. "A quantification of the evolution of bilateral trade flows Once bilateral RTAs are implemented," Working Papers 2220, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2220
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/22/Files/dt2220e.pdf
    File Function: First version, June 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "What Do Trade Agreements Really Do?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 73-90, Spring.
    2. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    3. McLaren, John, 1997. "Size, Sunk Costs, and Judge Bowker's Objection to Free Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 400-420, June.
    4. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
    5. Michael Tomz & Judith L. Goldstein & Douglas Rivers, 2007. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 2005-2018, December.
    6. Tristan Kohl & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen, 2016. "Do Trade Agreements Stimulate International Trade Differently? Evidence from 296 Trade Agreements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 97-131, January.
    7. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Clance, Matthew W., 2018. "Heterogeneous effects of economic integration agreements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 587-608.
    8. Tristan Kohl, 2014. "Do we really know that trade agreements increase trade?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 443-469, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blanca Jiménez-García & Julio Rodríguez, 2022. "A time series approach to study the dynamic effects of bilateral trade agreements," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 615-643, July.
    2. Kaleb Abreha & Raymond Robertson, 2023. "Heterogeneous trade agreements and adverse implications of restrictive rules of origin: Evidence from apparel trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(12), pages 3482-3510, December.
    3. Dutt, Pushan, 2020. "The WTO is not passé," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Julia Seiermann, 2018. "Only Words? How Power in Trade Agreement Texts Affects International Trade Flows," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 80, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    5. Scott L. Baier & Narendra R. Regmi, 2023. "Using Machine Learning to Capture Heterogeneity in Trade Agreements," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 863-894, September.
    6. Rod Falvey & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "The breadth of preferential trade agreements and the margins of exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(1), pages 181-251, February.
    7. Timini, Jacopo & Viani, Francesca, 2022. "A highway across the Atlantic? Trade and welfare effects of the EU-Mercosur agreement," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 291-308.
    8. Duc Bao Nguyen & Anne‐Gaël Vaubourg, 2021. "Financial intermediation, trade agreements and international trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 788-817, March.
    9. Timini, Jacopo, 2023. "Revisiting the ‘Cobden-Chevalier network’ trade and welfare effects," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Mario Larch & Aiko F. Schmeißer & Joschka Wanner, 2021. "A Tale of (almost) 1001 Coefficients: The Deep and Heterogeneous Effects of the EU‐Turkey Customs Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 242-260, March.
    11. Ayman El Dahrawy Sánchez‐Albornoz & Jacopo Timini, 2021. "Trade agreements and Latin American trade (creation and diversion) and welfare," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 2004-2040, July.
    12. Hou, Jia, 2020. "Independence Status of Territories and the Estimated Trade Effects of Regional Trade Agreements," MPRA Paper 104040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Zouheir El-Sahli, 2023. "The Partial and General Equilibrium Effects of the Greater Arab Free Trade Agreement," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 185-199, March.
    14. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero, 2020. "Does the GATT/WTO promote trade? After all, Rose was right," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(2), pages 377-405, May.
    15. Adu, Raymond & Litsios, Ioannis & Baimbridge, Mark, 2022. "ECOWAS single currency: Prospective effects on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    16. Kenta Yamanouchi, 2019. "Heterogeneous Impacts of Free Trade Agreements: The Case of Japan," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 18(2), pages 1-20, Summer.
    17. David J. Kuenzel, 2019. "Do trade flows respond to nudges? Evidence from the WTO’s Trade Policy Review Mechanism," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 735-764, August.
    18. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    19. Tristan Kohl, 2019. "The Belt and Road Initiative’s effect on supply-chain trade: evidence from structural gravity equations," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 12(1), pages 77-104.
    20. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jacopo Timini, 2022. "Unequal trade, unequal gains: the heterogeneous impact of MERCOSUR," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(49), pages 5655-5669, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bilateral RTAs; dynamic asymmetries; factor analysis; impulse responses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2220. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ángel Rodríguez. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdegves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.