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Have real interest rates really fallen that much in Spain?

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Blanco

    (Banco de España)

  • Fernando Restoy

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper analyses the behaviour of real interest rates in the Spanish economy over the last 15 years. Since inflation-indexed-bonds are not available, changes in implicit real interest rates are estimated using several approaches suggested by macroeconomic and financial theory. In particular, we employ equilibrium conditions of a representative agent under several specifications of preferences. Moreover, we exploit no-arbitrage conditions in securities markets. The evidence we report indicates that inflation uncertainty could account for a notable part of the observed decrease in nominal rates. Consequently, the actual real cost of financing might have decreased significantly less than what the course of ex-post real rates would suggest.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Blanco & Fernando Restoy, 2007. "Have real interest rates really fallen that much in Spain?," Working Papers 0704, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0704
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    3. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Keeping Up with the Joneses: Consumption Externalities, Portfolio Choice, and Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 1-8, February.
    4. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 2005. "Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution: A systematic exploitation of idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 951-969, July.
    5. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    6. Fernando Nieto, 2003. "Determinantes del crecimiento del crédito a los hogares en España," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue APR, pages 75-81, Abril.
    7. Carmen Martínez-Carrascal & Ana del Río, 2004. "Household borrowing and consumption in Spain," Working Papers 0421, Banco de España.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan S. Mora-Sanguinetti, 2011. "The Regulation of Residential Tenancy Markets in Post-War Western Europe: An Economic Analysis," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 47-75, June.
    2. Juan Mora-Sanguinetti, 2012. "Is judicial inefficacy increasing the weight of the house property market in Spain? Evidence at the local level," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 339-365, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real interest rates; intertemporal marginal rate of substitution;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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