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Resilience to health shocks and the spatial extent of local labour markets: evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Mattia Borsati
  • Michele Cascarano
  • Marco Percoco

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 uses human beings as means of transport. In addition to the general issue that fewer interpersonal contacts reduce the speed of contagion, less attention has been paid to the spatial configuration of such contacts. With respect to Italy, the virus severely affected the most industrialized area of the country, where the high density of economic activities also exhibits dense networks of commuting flows. In this article, we empirically investigate the relationship between the spatial extent of local labour markets, as defined by the structure of the commuting network, and the diffusion of COVID-19. To this end, we compute, for each municipality, the intensive and extensive margins of commuting flows and we measure the spread of the disease by considering excess mortality over the period of January-May 2020. By exploiting a rich and novel dataset, we find that the commuting network played a significant role in placing more connected places at more severe epidemiological risk. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that if commuting patterns were 90% of the real ones, Italy would have suffered approximately 1 300 and 1 000 fewer fatalities in March and April, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Mattia Borsati & Michele Cascarano & Marco Percoco, 2020. "Resilience to health shocks and the spatial extent of local labour markets: evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy," GREEN Working Papers 12, GREEN, Centre for Research on Geography, Resources, Environment, Energy & Networks, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcu:greewp:greenwp12
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    File URL: https://repec.unibocconi.it/iefe/bcu/papers/GREEN_wp12.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Resilience; Local labour market; Commuting flows; Mobility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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