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The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part I

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  • Jean-Sébastien Fontaine
  • Guillaume Nolin

Abstract

In this analytical note we show that the share of the systematic variations in the Canadian dollar has risen significantly in the past two decades. Systematic variations in the exchange rate are shared with other currencies. This parallels the equity market, where variations in the price of a given stock are shared with variations in the prices of other stocks. In the simplest case—the capital asset pricing model—the amount of systematic variations is given by the covariance of this stock with the equity market index. In the context of currencies, exchange rate variations that are systematic originate from common international economic or financial conditions affecting all exchange rates. These systematic variations contrast with domestic changes in economic or financial conditions specific to one country and affecting only that country’s exchange rate. Separating systematic variations is useful and essential to identify the effect of domestic economic news or policy decisions on the exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Guillaume Nolin, 2016. "The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part I," Staff Analytical Notes 16-15, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocsan:16-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Donald Coletti & René Lalonde & Philipp Maier, 2010. "What Drives Exchange Rates? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Dollar Bilateral Exchange Rates," Staff Working Papers 10-5, Bank of Canada.
    2. Mr. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Petia Topalova, 2013. "Capital Flows are Fickle: Anytime, Anywhere," IMF Working Papers 2013/183, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Guillaume Nolin, 2016. "The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part I," Staff Analytical Notes 16-15, Bank of Canada.
    4. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    5. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Guillaume Nolin, 2017. "The Share of Systemic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part II," Staff Analytical Notes 17-1, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 953-987, June.
    2. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Guillaume Nolin, 2017. "The Share of Systemic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part II," Staff Analytical Notes 17-1, Bank of Canada.
    3. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine & Guillaume Nolin, 2016. "The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part I," Staff Analytical Notes 16-15, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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