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Modelling the Evolution of Credit Spreads in the United States

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  • Stuart Turnbull
  • Jun Yang

Abstract

The authors use Jarrow and Turnbull's (1995) reduced-form methodology to model the evolution of the term structure of interest rates in the United States for different credit classes and different industries. The authors also estimate a liquidity function for each credit class and industry. Using data from individual firms, the authors estimate the probability of default under the natural measure and compare it with the estimated default frequencies produced by KMV.

Suggested Citation

  • Stuart Turnbull & Jun Yang, 2004. "Modelling the Evolution of Credit Spreads in the United States," Staff Working Papers 04-45, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:04-45
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pearson, Neil D & Sun, Tong-Sheng, 1994. "Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1279-1304, September.
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    3. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. "Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-625, July.
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    5. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-664, May.
    6. Chunsheng Zhou, 1997. "A jump-diffusion approach to modeling credit risk and valuing defaultable securities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    8. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2225-2241 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sundaresan, S. & Rameswamy, K. & Kim, I.J., 1992. "The Valuation of Corporate Fixed Income Securities," Papers 92-38, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    11. Robert Jarrow, 2017. "Liquidity Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: THE ECONOMIC FOUNDATIONS OF RISK MANAGEMENT Theory, Practice, and Applications, chapter 7, pages 59-68, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Cooper, Ian A & Mello, Antonio S, 1991. "The Default Risk of Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 597-620, June.
    13. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    14. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paweł Niedziółka, 2009. "Zmienność komponentu upadłościowego marży wskutek zachwiania stabilności finansowej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 67-86.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets; Market structure and pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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