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Changing Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and Debt

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  • Stephen S. Poloz

Abstract

This paper discusses three long-term forces that are acting on the global economy and their implications for companies and policy-makers: * the transition in geopolitics away from a global order based on international co-operation, or “deglobalization”; * the spread of new technology, particularly artificial intelligence, through the “fourth industrial revolution”; and * the steady buildup of debt—public and private—in most countries. Deglobalization leads to reduced investment and the deconstruction of global value chains, which will reduce global potential economic growth and living standards. The fourth industrial revolution will foster a period of stronger productivity growth and low inflation, accompanied by significant labour market disruptions. High and growing debt levels raise a range of risks associated with financial vulnerabilities. As well, the coincident rise in populism with doubts about the value of central bank independence risks an alignment of incentives between governments and highly indebted households, favouring a return to inflationary policies in the future. The paper concludes with a list of inferences and long-term policy implications. It was developed from a talk first delivered at the Spruce Meadows Changing Fortunes Round Table in Calgary, Alberta, in September 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen S. Poloz, 2019. "Changing Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and Debt," Discussion Papers 2019-12, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:19-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eichenbaum, Martin & Parker, Jonathan A. (ed.), . "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226577838, July.
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    5. Michael Bordo & Tamara Gomes & Lawrence Schembri, 2010. "Canada and the IMF: Trailblazer or Prodigal Son?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 309-333, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial stability; International topics; Monetary Policy; Trade Integration; Uncertainty and monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • H - Public Economics
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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