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Tail Risk in a Retail Payment System: An Extreme-Value Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Héctor Pérez Saiz
  • Blair Williams
  • Gabriel Xerri

Abstract

The increasing importance of risk management in payment systems has led to the development of an array of sophisticated tools designed to mitigate tail risk in these systems. In this paper, we use extreme value theory methods to quantify the level of tail risk in the Canadian retail payment system (ACSS) for the period from 2002 to 2015. Our analysis shows that tail risk has been increasing over the years, but the pace of growth has been reduced towards the end of our data sample, which suggests a slower rate of growth of collateral required to cover that risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Héctor Pérez Saiz & Blair Williams & Gabriel Xerri, 2018. "Tail Risk in a Retail Payment System: An Extreme-Value Approach," Discussion Papers 18-2, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:18-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlos Arango & Kim Huynh & Ben Fung & Gerald Stuber, 2012. "The Changing Landscape for Retail Payments in Canada and the Implications for the Demand for Cash," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2012(Autumn), pages 31-40.
    2. Keith Kuester & Stefan Mittnik & Marc S. Paolella, 2006. "Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 53-89.
    3. Héctor Pérez Saiz & Gabriel Xerri, 2016. "Credit Risk and Collateral Demand in a Retail Payment System," Discussion Papers 16-16, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric and statistical methods; Financial stability; Payment clearing and settlement systems;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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