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Fundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in Canada

Author

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  • Taylor Webley

Abstract

Existing home sales’ share of Canada’s economic pie has been rising in recent years, and variation around this trend has resulted in outsized contributions to changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). In this context, we use a cointegration framework to estimate the level of resale activity across the Canadian provinces that is supported by fundamentals—namely, full-time employment, housing affordability and migration flows—to help look through the volatility. The results suggest that, over longer horizons, resales activity and these fundamentals share a stable relationship, although deviations are sometimes persistent. We also find a robust and positive relationship between house price growth and deviations of existing home sales from fundamentals. While predicting quarterly changes in resales remains very difficult, provincial models improve upon national and naïve benchmarks and provide a useful framework for identifying risks to GDP growth that stem directly from the resale market.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor Webley, 2018. "Fundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in Canada," Discussion Papers 18-16, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:18-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    3. Frédérick Demers, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Housing Investment: The Case of Canada," Staff Working Papers 05-41, Bank of Canada.
    4. David Amirault & Daniel de Munnik & Sarah Miller, 2016. "What drags and drives mobility? Explaining Canada's aggregate migration patterns," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 1035-1056, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mikael Khan & Taylor Webley, 2019. "Disentangling the Factors Driving Housing Resales," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-12, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric and statistical methods; Economic models; Housing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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