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Updating the Option Implied Probability of Default Methodology

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  • Johannes Vilsmeier

Abstract

In this paper we ‘update’ the option implied probability of default (option iPoD) approach recently suggested in the literature. First, a numerically more stable objective function for the estimation of the risk neutral density is derived whose integrals can be solved analytically. Second, it is reasoned that the originally proposed approach for the estimation of the PoD has some serious drawbacks and hence an alternative procedure is suggested that is based on the Lagrange multipliers. Carrying out numerical evaluations and a practical application we find that the framework provides very promising results.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Vilsmeier, 2011. "Updating the Option Implied Probability of Default Methodology," Working Papers 107, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    • Handle: RePEc:bav:wpaper:107_vilsmeier
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    File URL: https://bgpe.cms.rrze.uni-erlangen.de/files/2023/07/107_Updating-the-Option-Implied-Probability-of-Default-Methodology.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2011
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. Ormoneit & H. White, 1999. "An efficient algorithm to compute maximum entropy densities," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 127-140.
    2. Christian Capuano, 2008. "The Option-iPoD," IMF Working Papers 2008/194, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    4. Knaup, M., 2011. "Market-based measures of bank risk and bank aggressiveness," Other publications TiSEM cff93cd4-1955-40ab-a3c0-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Zellner, Arnold & Highfield, Richard A., 1988. "Calculation of maximum entropy distributions and approximation of marginalposterior distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 195-209, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Philipp Matros & Johannes Vilsmeier, 2013. "The Multivariate Option iPoD Framework - Assessing Systemic Financial Risk," Working Papers 143, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    2. Matros, Philipp & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2014. "The multivariate option iPoD framework: assessing systemic financial risk," Discussion Papers 20/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Ilknur Zer, 2015. "Information Disclosures, Default Risk, and Bank Value," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Option Implied Probability of Default; Risk Neutral Density; Cross Entropy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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