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Vanishing Third World Emigrants?

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  • Timothy J. Hatton
  • Jeffrey G. Williamson

Abstract

This paper documents a stylized fact: the Third World has been undergoing an emigration life cycle since the 1960s, and, except for Africa, emigration rates have been level or even declining since a peak in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. The current economic crisis will serve only to accelerate those trends. The paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving these emigration life cycles to the United States since 1970 – income and education gaps between the US and the sending country, poverty traps and the size of the cohort at risk in the sending country, and the migrant stock in the US. It then projects the life cycle up to 2024. The projections imply that pressure on Third World emigration over the next two decades will not increase, after which it will decline. It also suggests that future US immigrants will be more African and less Hispanic than in the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Vanishing Third World Emigrants?," CEPR Discussion Papers 606, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:606
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    File URL: https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/CEPR/DP606.pdf
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    5. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2006. "Inequality and Schooling Responses to Globalization Forces: Lessons from History," NBER Working Papers 12553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Demographic shocks and global factor flows," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
    7. Jane Sneddon Little & Robert K. Triest, 2001. "Seismic shifts: the economic impact of demographic change: an overview," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
    8. Clark, Ximena & Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2004. "Explaining U.S. immigration, 1971-98," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3252, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tausch, Arno, 2015. "Globalization, the environment and the future “greening” of Arab politics," MPRA Paper 64511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Arno Tausch & Almas Heshmati, 2012. "Migration, Openness and the Global Preconditions of "Smart Development"," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 1-62.
    3. Nicola D. Coniglio & Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Laura Serlenga, 2010. "Return Decisions of Undocumented Migrants: Do Network Effects Help the High‐skilled Overstay?," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(s1), pages 93-113, December.
    4. Sajitha Beevi Karayil, 2021. "Movement of natural persons and the sieve of immigration policy: Evidence from United States," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 853-879, November.
    5. Tausch, Arno, 2016. "‘Smart development’. An essay on a new political economy of the environment," MPRA Paper 70204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Furtado, Delia & Kong, Haiyang, 2021. "How Do Low-Skilled Immigrants Adjust to Chinese Import Shocks? Evidence Using English Language Proficiency," IZA Discussion Papers 14152, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Rayp, Glenn & Ruyssen, Ilse & Standaert, Samuel, 2017. "Measuring and Explaining Cross-Country Immigration Policies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 141-163.
    8. Zaiceva, A. & Zimmermann, K.F., 2016. "Migration and the Demographic Shift," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 119-177, Elsevier.
    9. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Emigration in the long run: evidence from two global centuries," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 23(2), pages 17-28, November.
    10. Arno Tausch & Almas Heshmati, 2013. "Worker remittances and the global preconditions of ‘smart development’," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 35(1), pages 25-50, April.
    11. Kevin H. O’Rourke, 2009. "Power and Plenty in 2030," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp298, IIIS.
    12. Giovanni Peri, 2012. "Immigration and Europe’s Demographic Problems: Analysis and Policy Considerations," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(4), pages 03-08, 02.
    13. Mallick, Bishawjit, 2023. "Environmental non-migration: Analysis of drivers, factors, and their significance," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Third World; emigration; development; life cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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