IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/auu/dpaper/540.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Retirement Expectations of Middle-Aged Individuals

Author

Listed:
  • Deborah A. Cobb-Clark
  • Steve Stillman

Abstract

We use the first three waves of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey to examine the retirement plans of middle-aged workers (aged 45-55). Our results indicate that approximately two-thirds of men and more then half of women appear to be making standard retirement plans. At the same time, more than one in five individuals seem to have delayed their retirement planning and approximately one in ten either do not know when they expect to retire or expect to never retire. Retirement plans are closely related to current labor market position. Specifically, forming expectations about the age at which one will leave the labor market appears to be easier for workers in jobs with well defined pension benefits and standard retirement ages. Moreover, those who report that they do not know when they expect to retire do in fact appear to face greater uncertainty in their retirement planning. Those who anticipate working forever seem to do so out of concerns about the adequacy of their retirement incomes rather than out of increased job satisfaction or a heightened desire to remain employed. Finally, men alter their retirement plans in response to labor market shocks, while women are more sensitive to their own and their partners’ health changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Deborah A. Cobb-Clark & Steve Stillman, 2006. "The Retirement Expectations of Middle-Aged Individuals," CEPR Discussion Papers 540, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:540
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/CEPR/DP540.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1989. "The Timing of Retirement: A Comparison of Expectations and Realizations," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Aging, pages 335-358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jeff Borland, 2005. "Transitions to Retirement: A Review," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2005n03, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    3. Dwyer, Debra Sabatini & Mitchell, Olivia S., 1999. "Health problems as determinants of retirement: Are self-rated measures endogenous?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 173-193, April.
    4. Chan Sewin & Stevens Ann H, 2004. "How Does Job Loss Affect the Timing of Retirement?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, May.
    5. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2001. "Imperfect Knowledge, Retirement and Saving," NBER Working Papers 8406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lixin Cai & Guyonne Kalb, 2007. "Health status and labour force status of older working-age Australian men," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 10(4), pages 227-252.
    7. Arthur van Soest & Michael Hurd, 2004. "Models for Anchoring and Acquiescence Bias in Consumption Data," NBER Working Papers 10461, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Honig, Marjorie, 1998. "Married Women's Retirement Expectations: Do Pensions and Social Security Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 202-206, May.
    9. Debra S. Dwyer & Jianting Hu, "undated". "Retirement Expectations and Realizations: The Role of Health Shocks and Economic Factors," Pension Research Council Working Papers 98-18, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
    10. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
    11. Richard Disney & Tanner, Tanner, 1999. "What can we learn from retirement expectations data?," IFS Working Papers W99/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    12. Kathleen McGarry, 2004. "Health and Retirement: Do Changes in Health Affect Retirement Expectations?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(3).
    13. van Soest, Arthur & Hurd, Michael, 2008. "A Test for Anchoring and Yea-Saying in Experimental Consumption Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 126-136, March.
    14. Lixin Cai & Guyonne Kalb, 2004. "Health Status and Labour Force Participation: Evidence from the HILDA Data," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n04, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    15. Kathryn H. Anderson & Richard V. Burkhauser & Joseph F. Quinn, 1986. "Do Retirement Dreams Come True? The Effect of Unanticipated Events on Retirement Plans," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 39(4), pages 518-526, July.
    16. repec:bla:ausecr:v:37:y:2004:i:4:p:359-382 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Benitez-Silva, Hugo & Dwyer, Debra S., 2006. "Expectation formation of older married couples and the rational expectations hypothesis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 191-218, April.
    18. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Debra Dwyer, 2002. "Retirement Expectations Formation Using the Health and Retirement Study," Department of Economics Working Papers 02-04, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics, revised 18 Jun 2002.
    19. Kristin J. Kleinjans & Jinkook Lee, 2006. "The link between individual expectations and savings: Do nursing home expectations matter?," Economics Working Papers 2006-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    20. Alicia H. Munnell & Robert K. Triest & Natalia Jivan, 2004. "How Do Pensions Affect Expected and Actual Retirement Ages?," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2004-27, Center for Retirement Research, revised Nov 2004.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sinning, Mathias, 2007. "Wealth and Asset Holdings of Immigrants in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 3089, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Thomas K. Bauer & Deborah A. Cobb‐Clark & Vincent A. Hildebrand & Mathias G. Sinning, 2011. "A Comparative Analysis Of The Nativity Wealth Gap," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(4), pages 989-1007, October.
    3. Mathias Sinning, 2007. "Wealth and Asset Holdings of Immigrants in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 0030, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    4. repec:zbw:rwirep:0030 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Diana Warren, 2008. "Retirement Expectations and Labour Force Transitions: The Experience of the Baby Boomer Generation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2008n24, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    6. Deborah A. Cobb‐Clark & Vincent A. Hildebrand, 2011. "Portfolio Allocation In The Face Of A Means‐Tested Public Pension," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 57(3), pages 536-560, September.
    7. Helen Levy & Kristin Seefeldt, 2008. "How Do Lower-Income Families Think about Retirement?," Working Papers wp195, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    8. Diana Warren, 2013. "Retirement Decisions of Couples: The Impact of Spousal Characteristics and Preferences on the Timing of Retirement," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2013n41, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    9. James Enright & Grant M Scobie, 2010. "Healthy, Wealthy and Working: Retirement Decisions of Older New Zealanders," Treasury Working Paper Series 10/02, New Zealand Treasury.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Deborah A. Cobb‐Clark & Steven Stillman, 2009. "The Retirement Expectations of Middle‐aged Australians," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(269), pages 146-163, June.
    2. Bissonnette, L. & van Soest, A.H.O., 2010. "Retirement Expectations, Preferences, and Decisions," Other publications TiSEM 45e93b08-cc1d-47c6-ba06-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
    4. Nabanita Datta Gupta & Mona Larsen, 2010. "The impact of health on individual retirement plans: self‐reported versus diagnostic measures," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(7), pages 792-813, July.
    5. Benitez-Silva, Hugo & Dwyer, Debra S., 2006. "Expectation formation of older married couples and the rational expectations hypothesis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 191-218, April.
    6. Barrett, Alan & Mosca, Irene, 2012. "Announcing an Increase in the State Pension Age and the Recession: Which Mattered More for Expected Retirement Ages?," IZA Discussion Papers 6325, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Monika Riedel & Helmut Hofer & Birgit Wögerbauer, 2015. "Determinants for the transition from work into retirement in Europe," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-19, December.
    8. Ilmakunnas, Pekka & Ilmakunnas, Seija, 2018. "Health and retirement age: Comparison of expectations and actual retirement," MPRA Paper 102618, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Purvi Sevak & Lucie Schmidt, 2011. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Updating of Expectations by Older Americans," Working Papers wp259, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    10. Schreiber Philipp, 2018. "Widowhood and Retirement Timing: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 1-21, July.
    11. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2003. "What to Expect when you are Expecting Rationality: Testing Rational Expectations using Micro Data," Working Papers wp037, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    12. Beni­tez-Silva, Hugo & Ni, Huan, 2008. "Health status and health dynamics in an empirical model of expected longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 564-584, May.
    13. Pierre-Carl Michaud & Arthur vanSoest, 2006. "How Did the Elimination of the Earnings Test Above the Normal Retirement Age Affect Retirement Expectations?," Working Papers wp135, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    14. Kluth, Sebastian, 2014. "Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Role of Actuarial Reduction Rates in Individual Retirement Planning in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100413, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. James Enright & Grant M Scobie, 2010. "Healthy, Wealthy and Working: Retirement Decisions of Older New Zealanders," Treasury Working Paper Series 10/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    16. Helen Levy & Kristin Seefeldt, 2008. "How Do Lower-Income Families Think about Retirement?," Working Papers wp195, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    17. Katherine G. Abraham & Susan N. Houseman, 2005. "Work and Retirement Plans among Older Americans," Book chapters authored by Upjohn Institute researchers, in: Robert L. Clark & Olivia S. Mitchell (ed.),Reinventing the Retirement Paradigm, pages 70-91, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    18. Bonsang, Eric & Adam, Stéphane & Perelman, Sergio, 2012. "Does retirement affect cognitive functioning?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 490-501.
    19. Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula & Renata Bottazzi, 2003. "Retirement Expectations and Pension Reforms," CSEF Working Papers 92, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    20. Steven J. Haider & Melvin Stephens, 2007. "Is There a Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 247-264, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    retirement; expectations; middle-aged workers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:540. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cpanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.