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Fertility, Dependency and Social Security

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  • Patricia Apps
  • Ray Rees

Abstract

A subject of considerable policy concern is the problem presented by declining fertility rates for social security systems in general and Pay-As-You-Go pension schemes in particular. Solutions proposed range from complete privatisation of the pensions system, through supplementary private tax-advantaged savings schemes, to "parametric reform" of the existing schemes, involving increases in contribution rates and retirement ages, and reductions in the real value of benefit levels. This paper argues that the sense of crisis generated by looking only at the Aged Dependency Ratio is exaggerated. Moreover, we should look at what appears to be the root cause of the problem, the apparently inverse relationship between female labour force participation and fertility. A solution to the problem can be found in policies that allow an increase in female labour supply and fertility simultaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia Apps & Ray Rees, 2003. "Fertility, Dependency and Social Security," CEPR Discussion Papers 462, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:462
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    File URL: https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/CEPR/DP462.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Geanakoplos & Olivia S. Mitchell & Stephen P. Zeldes, "undated". "Would a Privatized Social Security System Really Pay a Higher Rate of Return?," Pension Research Council Working Papers 98-6, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    3. Patricia Apps & Ray Rees, 2001. "Household Saving and Full Consumpyion Over the Life Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 428, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    4. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    5. Disney, Richard, 2000. "Crises in Public Pension Programmes in OECD: What Are the Reform Options?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages 1-23, February.
    6. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "Why a Funded Pension System is Useful and Why It is Not Useful," NBER Working Papers 7592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-387, June.
    8. Apps, Patricia & Rees, Ray, 1999. "On the taxation of trade within and between households," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 241-263, August.
    9. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "Why a Funded Pension System is Needed and Why It is Not Needed," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 7(4), pages 389-410, August.
    10. Apps, Patricia, 1991. "Tax Reform, Population Ageing and the Changing Labour Supply Behaviour of Married Women," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 4(3), pages 201-216, August.
    11. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
    12. David Miles & Ales Cerny, 2001. "Risk, Return and Portfolio Allocation under Alternative Pension Arrangements with Imperfect Financial Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 441, CESifo.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patricia Apps & Ray Rees, 2007. "Population Ageing, Taxation, pensions and Health Costs," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 10(2), pages 79-97.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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