IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aub/autbar/870.11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tax Evasion, Technology Shocks, and the Cyclicality of Government Revenues

Author

Listed:
  • Jordi Caballé
  • Judith Panadés

Abstract

This paper analyzes the behavior of the tax revenue to output ratio over the busi- ness cycle. In order to replicate the empirical evidence, we develop a simple model combining the standard Ak growth model with the tax evasion phenomenon. When individuals conceal part of their true income from the tax authority, they face the risk of being audited and hence of paying the corresponding fine. Under the empiri- cally plausible assumptions that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution exhibits a sufficiently small value and that productivity shocks are serially correlated, we show that the elasticity of government revenue with respect to output is larger than one, which agrees with the empirical evidence. This result holds even if the tax system displays flat tax rates. We extend the previous setup to generate larger fiscal deficits when the economy experiences a recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Jordi Caballé & Judith Panadés, 2011. "Tax Evasion, Technology Shocks, and the Cyclicality of Government Revenues," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 870.11, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    • Handle: RePEc:aub:autbar:870.11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pareto.uab.es/wp/2011/87011.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ernesto Stein & Ernesto Talvi & Alejandro Grisanti, 1999. "Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Performance: The Latin American Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 103-134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Donald Bruce & William F. Fox & M.H. Tuttle, 2006. "Tax Base Elasticities: A Multi-State Analysis of Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(2), pages 315-341, October.
    4. Hakansson, Nils H, 1970. "Optimal Investment and Consumption Strategies Under Risk for a Class of Utility Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(5), pages 587-607, September.
    5. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    6. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lin, Wen-Zhung & Yang, C. C., 2001. "A dynamic portfolio choice model of tax evasion: Comparative statics of tax rates and its implication for economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1827-1840, November.
    8. Ms. Gabriela Inchauste & Mr. Bernardin Akitoby & Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, 2004. "The Cyclical and Long-Term Behavior of Government Expenditures in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2004/202, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?," Research Department Publications 4508, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    2. Manasse, Paolo & Panizza, Ugo & Dos Reis, Laura, 2007. "Targeting the Structural Balance," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1595, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Céspedes, Luis Felipe & Velasco, Andrés, 2014. "Was this time different?: Fiscal policy in commodity republics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 92-106.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Scholarly Articles 4723209, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    6. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(4), pages 536-562.
    7. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Prociclicalidad o Causalidad Reversa?," Research Department Publications 4509, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Leandro Medina & Carlos Caceres & Ms. Ana Corbacho, 2010. "Structural Breaks in Fiscal Performance: Did Fiscal Responsibility Laws Have Anything to Do with Them?," IMF Working Papers 2010/248, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mr. Gaston K Mpatswe & Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba & Mr. Robert C York, 2011. "The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policies in the CEMAC Region," IMF Working Papers 2011/205, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Xiang Luo & Xinhai Lu & Zuo Zhang & Yue Pan, 2020. "Regional differences and rural public expenditure cyclicality: evidence from transitory and persistent shocks in China," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 65(2), pages 281-318, October.
    11. Ahmed Mahmud & Syed Basher, 2014. "Price volatility and the political economy of resource-rich nations," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 253-279, August.
    12. Brahima Coulibaly, 2012. "Monetary policy in emerging market economies: what lessons from the global financial crisis?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1042, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Christopher Faircloth & Marijn Verhoeven, 2007. "Public Expenditure in Latin America: Trends and Key Policy Issues," IMF Working Papers 2007/021, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Christos Chrysanthakopoulos & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2024. "Tax policy cyclicality and financial development," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 48-57.
    15. Arthur Mendes & Steven Pennings, 2025. "One Rule Fits All? Heterogeneous Fiscal Rules for Commodity Exporters When Price Shocks Can Be Persistent: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 55, January.
    16. Aygun Garayeva & Gulzar Tahirova, 2017. "Government Spending Effectiveness and the Quality of Fiscal Institutions," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 2, pages 128-143.
    17. Raúl Alberto Sosa, 2022. "Hegemonías Provinciales: el Gasto Público, la Inversión y las Cortes Supremas de Justicia Provinciales," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4601, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    18. Michaud, Amanda & Rothert, Jacek, 2018. "Redistributive fiscal policies and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 123-133.
    19. João T. Jalles, 2022. "Do credit rating agencies reward fiscal prudence?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 2-22, April.
    20. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2013. "Optimal fiscal policy and different degrees of access to international capital markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 336-352.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax evasion; Technology shocks; Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aub:autbar:870.11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Xavier Vila (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ufuabes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.